RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On May 26, 2024
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Happy Memorial Day Weekend! This weekend traditionally kicks off summer with plenty of barbecues. It’s also, traditionally, a time for fantasy managers to take honest stock of whether their rosters are cooked, and if contention is in the cards this year. For dynasty managers, this might be the weekend that you decide that you will be rebuilding for the future.
Which prospects should you pick up to help restock your farm? Let RoboScout help.
Complex League Hitters (min 20 PA)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | Dameury Pena | MIN | 100 | 100 |
2 | Brailer Guerrero | TBR | 89 | 93 |
3 | Jeremy Rodriguez | NYM | 99 | 92 |
4 | Starlyn Caba | PHI | 86 | 89 |
5 | Edgleen Perez | NYY | 84 | 88 |
6 | Robert Calaz | COL | 91 | 85 |
7 | Andruw Musett | BOS | 77 | 83 |
8 | Enrique Jimenez | DET | 80 | 83 |
9 | Eduardo Quintero | LAD | 79 | 82 |
10 | Demetrio Crisantes | ARI | 75 | 82 |
11 | Larry Martinez | TBR | 74 | 81 |
12 | Filippo Di Turi | MIL | 96 | 80 |
13 | Leandro Arias | BAL | 74 | 80 |
14 | Franyerber Montilla | DET | 73 | 80 |
15 | Franklin Arias | BOS | 75 | 79 |
16 | Welbyn Francisca | CLE | 71 | 77 |
17 | Edwin Amparo | BAL | 70 | 77 |
18 | Yassel Soler | ARI | 71 | 76 |
19 | Brian Sanchez | NYY | 69 | 76 |
20 | Richard Ramirez | PIT | 75 | 75 |
21 | Felnin Celesten | SEA | 82 | 75 |
22 | Yeiker Reyes | COL | 78 | 74 |
23 | Alexander Albertus | LAD | 68 | 74 |
24 | Jhonny Severino | PIT | 80 | 74 |
25 | Mario Baez | ATL | 84 | 73 |
The catching prospect renaissance continues. A pair of 18-year-old Venezuelan receivers find themselves in the top 10: Enrique Jimenez (Tigers No. 23 prospect) and Andruw Musett (Red Sox). Jimenez was a $1.25 million international signing for Detroit in 2023 on the strength of his switch-hitting gap power and athleticism behind the dish. The Red Sox signed Musett for only $90,000. So far in 2024, they are showing similar hitting profiles at the Complex League.
They both have an OPS above .900, more walks than strikeouts, and—more concerningly—groundball rates above 50%. They’re also showing similar Statcast data: plus contact rates, plus swing decisions for the level, along with solidly average exit velocities and barrel rates. Tigers catching prospect Josue Briceno is an obvious comparison after dominating the FCL last year. But to put it in context, although Musett and Jimenez are performing at a level one standard deviation above the average Complex League hitter, neither have been as dominant as Briceno was in 2023. One interesting defensive note? Mussett has thrown out 55% of base stealers, though he has played first base as often as catcher.
Two other 19-year-old middle infielders, Demetrio Crisantes (Diamondbacks) and Franyerber Montilla (Tigers), find themselves near the top of the rankings. They both have huge Statcast data and more walks than strikeouts.
Crisantes may even be a better prospect than fellow D-backs prospect Yassel Soler, who we discussed last week. Amongst Complex League hitters with 40 plate appearances or more (over 170 hitters), Cristante has the 11th-highest contact rate and the 12th-highest barrel rate, with a Z-Swing% minus O-Swing%—a proxy for swing decisions—of nearly 17% ranking 11th. That’s the trifecta of Statcast ingredients we look for: swing decisions, contact skills, and an ability to barrel the ball with authority—including a 90th percentile exit velocity above 104 mph. The Arizona prep product also has plus speed. Crisantes is one of the hitters I’m most eager to see promoted to full-season ball. He’s a target for me this week.
Meanwhile, we identified Montilla as a name to know outside the Tigers’ Top 30 prior to the season. He’s an athletic middle infielder with a plus arm and a solid hit tool. Although he repeated the DSL in 2023, improving his contact and barrel rates, he has really taken a step forward stateside, ranking 14th and 25th respectively for contact rate and barrel rate for Complex League hitters with 40 plate appearances or more. He has shown even better swing decisions than Crisantes and has already exceeded his 2023 maximum exit velocity on two occasions this year.
Despite being older, I would have both Crisantes and Montilla well ahead of Musett and Jimenez on any prospect list.
Angels LHP Sadiel Baro turned in the best pitching performance of the week, striking out 15 batters over 10.2 innings with only one walk. He has a 29% strikeout-minus-walk rate and a 68% groundball rate this year.
Despite limited data, the Cuban has a quite interesting arsenal. He showed a six-pitch mix last year that didn’t seem overly impressive. He showed an 88 mph fastball from a high release point and extremely short extension and a 77 mph curveball that has some two-plane movement. RoboScout is exercising caution when folding in the Stuff+.
Low-A Hitters (min 45 PA)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | Colt Emerson | SEA | 96 | 100 |
2 | Lazaro Montes | SEA | 100 | 100 |
3 | Jeral Perez | LAD | 85 | 96 |
4 | Jonny Farmelo | SEA | 84 | 92 |
5 | Aidan Smith | SEA | 90 | 92 |
6 | Kevin McGonigle | DET | 77 | 89 |
7 | Jaison Chourio | CLE | 79 | 89 |
8 | Ralphy Velazquez | CLE | 83 | 86 |
9 | Alfredo Duno | CIN | 82 | 86 |
10 | Zyhir Hope | LAD | 71 | 85 |
11 | Josue Briceno | DET | 72 | 84 |
12 | Tai Peete | SEA | 76 | 83 |
13 | Cristofer Torin | ARI | 73 | 83 |
14 | Max Clark | DET | 73 | 83 |
15 | Jesus Baez | NYM | 72 | 82 |
16 | Blake Mitchell | KCR | 74 | 80 |
17 | Angel Genao | CLE | 65 | 80 |
18 | Josue De Paula | LAD | 63 | 78 |
19 | Aidan Miller | PHI | 67 | 77 |
20 | Marco Vargas | NYM | 60 | 77 |
21 | Thomas Sosa | BAL | 63 | 76 |
22 | Jean Joseph | TOR | 61 | 75 |
23 | Bryce Eldridge | SFG | 66 | 75 |
24 | Yophery Rodriguez | MIL | 77 | 75 |
25 | Michael Arroyo | SEA | 70 | 75 |
We’ve yet to call out Blue Jays outfielder Jean Joseph despite showing up on the Low-A hitting list the past few weeks. A 2022 international signee via the Dominican Republic, Joseph had good center field instincts and athleticism, but needed to develop power. He’s splitting time between right and center field this year and his 90th percentile exit velocities and barrel rates have improved improved each of the last three years. Couple that with his better-than-average swing decisions and plus contact rate and we have the ingredients for a potential outfield regular. In the interest of irresponsibility, below are a comparison of some key Statcast metrics between Joseph and another 19-year-old international outfielder: Lazaro Montes (Mariners No. 4 prospect).
Contact% | zContact% | 90thEV | “Barrel”% | Max EV | Chase% | |
L Montes | 71% | 75% | 104 mph | 18% | 108 mph | 24% |
J Joseph | 77% | 85% | 102 mph | 17% | 107 mph | 17% |
Yes, Montes outshines him in the power metrics but Joseph has a significant advantage in his swing decisions and contact ability. He’s an underrated outfielder in 2024.
Marco Vargas (Mets No. 17 prospect) was a standout in 2023 with the Marlins and finished the season with the Mets—after being traded for David Robertson—with the third-highest on-base percentage in the FCL. With outstanding bat-to-ball skills, the concern has been about the second baseman’s ability to provide impact on contact. Well, in 2024, he’s improved even further on his hit tool, lowering his swinging strike rate to below 5% and ranking in the top five in contact rate at Low-A.
Still, the ISO is in the 20th percentile. Additionally, his groundball rate has ballooned to above 55% as he’s raised his pull rate to above 40% for the first time in his career. The scouting report remains the same: excellent bat control and swing decisions but questions continue about his ability to inflict damage. Having just turned 19 years old a few weeks ago, RoboScout still thinks the hit tool is strong enough to rank in the top 25 at the level.
Angel Genao (Guardians No. 12 prospect) continues to climb up the RoboScout Low-A rankings. He’s one of two 20-year-olds in the top 25—Phillies No. 4 prospect Aidan Miller is the other.
Prior to the year, it was unclear whether Genao could stick at shortstop or would inevitably slide to third base to take advantage of his arm strength. Genao appears to have improved defensively. Much like Vargas, Genao has precocious bat-to-ball ability—though is much more of a free-swinger—but has significantly more power, with five home runs on the year already and a barrel rate that is 12th amongst hitters 20 or younger who have at least 100 plate appearances.
Also like Vargas, Genao has a groundball rate that is above 50% but encouragingly has a much higher proportion of his balls in play fall between 10 and 30%—actually higher than league average—indicating that there is much less of a launch angle concern with Genao. Having just left his teenage years a week ago, the arrow is way up on Genao, especially if he can stick at shortstop.
Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | Matt Wilkinson | CLE | 100 | 100 |
2 | Jonah Tong | NYM | 90 | 97 |
3 | Quinn Mathews | STL | 84 | 95 |
4 | George Klassen | PHI | 80 | 92 |
5 | Santiago Suarez | TBR | 76 | 88 |
6 | Bishop Letson | MIL | 77 | 88 |
7 | Alejandro Rosario | TEX | 73 | 86 |
8 | Didier Fuentes | ATL | 74 | 85 |
9 | Yujanyer Herrera | MIL | 83 | 85 |
10 | Franklin Gomez | NYM | 76 | 82 |
11 | Luis Serna | NYY | 75 | 81 |
12 | Thomas White | MIA | 70 | 80 |
13 | Manuel Rodriguez | MIL | 75 | 80 |
14 | Michael Forret | BAL | 72 | 80 |
15 | Gary Gill Hill | TBR | 75 | 79 |
16 | Welinton Herrera | COL | 65 | 78 |
17 | Jace Kaminska | COL | 68 | 78 |
18 | Barrett Kent | LAA | 69 | 78 |
19 | Luis De Leon | BAL | 73 | 77 |
20 | Josh Grosz | NYY | 66 | 77 |
21 | Kohl Drake | TEX | 73 | 77 |
22 | Jarlin Susana | WSN | 61 | 76 |
23 | Tyler Gough | SEA | 59 | 76 |
24 | Noble Meyer | MIA | 64 | 75 |
25 | Jedixson Paez | BOS | 75 | 75 |
Didier Fuentes ranked 23rd last week and then—poof!—he’s now eighth after dissecting Low-A Kannapoliks on Wednesday. He struck out 11 batters and walked none over five innings predominantly utilizing a two-pitch mix. The four-seam fastball sits 93 mph with an extremely flat VAA. He relies on it nearly two-thirds of the time, and why not? It generates whiffs over 35% of the time coming in with with high extension and an extremely low-release slot. The 83 mph slider has bullet spin and is a solid complement. On the season, the 19-year-old has a 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate—but over his last five starts, he has had a 34% strikeout rate.
Keep an eye on Rockies reliever Welinton Herrera. He’s the highest-ranked Low-A relief pitcher on the list, even despite getting dinged for having the lower future expected fantasy value of a bullpen arm. Herrera has a 47% strikeout rate, only a 5% walk rate, and a 71% groundball rate on the season. The lefthander has been even more unhittable recently with a 0.49 WHIP and 0.00 ERA over his last nine appearances spanning 15 innings.
The 20-year-old reliever has a 94 mph four-seam fastball that comes in extremely flat from a low release, leading to a 49% whiff rate—more than double the average whiff rate for a Low-A four-seam fastball. His slider comes in at 83 mph and has bullet spin, getting slightly below-average whiffs but that he lands for strikes. From a movement and velocity point of view, his slider comps quite closely to Samuel Aldegheri (Phillies No. 12 prospect) which we have graded as a 50. The only other three pitchers who were in their age-20 season or younger and posted a higher strikeout minus walk rate in Low-A with at least 10 innings pitched since 2006 were Craig Kimbrel (2008), Chris Paddack (2016) and Jaime Melendez (2021). Strong company.
High-A Hitters (min 50 PA)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | Luke Keaschall | MIN | 100 | 100 |
2 | Carter Jensen | KCR | 96 | 96 |
3 | Sal Stewart | CIN | 87 | 87 |
4 | Alex Freeland | LAD | 80 | 84 |
5 | Xavier Isaac | TBR | 81 | 84 |
6 | Yohendrick Pinango | CHC | 77 | 81 |
7 | Jefferson Rojas | CHC | 77 | 79 |
8 | Ethan Salas | SDP | 92 | 78 |
9 | Mike Boeve | MIL | 72 | 78 |
10 | Luke Adams | MIL | 76 | 78 |
11 | Cam Collier | CIN | 80 | 77 |
12 | Jay Allen II | CIN | 82 | 77 |
13 | Thayron Liranzo | LAD | 78 | 77 |
14 | Sebastian Walcott | TEX | 88 | 77 |
15 | Samuel Zavala | CHW | 74 | 76 |
16 | Hector Rodriguez | CIN | 71 | 75 |
17 | C.J. Kayfus | CLE | 72 | 75 |
18 | Henry Bolte | OAK | 79 | 74 |
19 | Nate Furman | CLE | 67 | 74 |
20 | Ricardo Olivar | MIN | 67 | 72 |
21 | Joe Mack | MIA | 72 | 71 |
22 | Hendry Mendez | PHI | 68 | 70 |
23 | Pedro Ramirez | CHC | 69 | 69 |
24 | Rubel Cespedes | MIN | 60 | 67 |
25 | Will Simpson | OAK | 61 | 67 |
Rangers prospect Sebastian Walcott is quietly getting hot after a slow start. He has three home runs, three steals and a 119 wRC+ in his last 100 plate appearances after posting a 38 wRC+ in his first 50 plate appearances. He chased 25% of the time entering May, but has cut it to an excellent 15% this month, bringing his season rate down to a one-standard-deviation-better-than-average 20.5% on the year. We all know about his incredible power—he has had more than seven balls off the bat recorded at over 106 mph—and boasts the highest 90th percentile exit velocity and max exit velocity among teenagers in High-A, including Cam Collier.
Another slow starter, Samuel Zavala (White Sox No. 7 prospect) has also turned it on in May. After hitting an anemic .185/.254/.296 in his first 60 plate appearances with only one home run, the former Padre has a 108 wRC+ in his last 100 plate appearances. Although the batting average is still just barely above the Mendoza line—heretofore referred to as the “Gallo line”—Zavala raised his contact rate from 70% in his first 60 plate appearances to 75% on the year.
More encouragingly, in 2023 over 515 plate appearances, Zavala had a maximum exit velocity of just over 106.7 mph (with a 90th percentile exit velocity of 101 mph). Already in 2024, the outfielder has had nine instances of balls of the bat exceeding 105 mph and set a new maximum exit velocity of 111 mph. A once-highly ranked fantasy prospect, it will be interesting to see how the rest of 2024 plays out, but so far the results have been encouraging.
Ricardo Olivar (Twins) didn’t make our Twins Top 30 but is showing a solidly red Statcast profile. In 2023, he had above-average marks for contact rate, barrel rate, chase rate, and 90th percentile exit velocity. In 2024, he’s met or exceeded each of these metrics while adding more velocity. Playing approximately two-thirds of his games behind the dish, and one-third split between left field or DH, the Venezuelan is showing an intriguing power bat profile who will pose an interesting Rule 5 decision quandary for the Twins as he will be eligible at the end of the season, along with Rubel Cespedes. RoboScout thinks the Twins should probably add both to the 40-man roster.
Finally, two players in the High-A Top 10 have slumped significantly: Jefferson Rojas (Cubs No. 5 prospect) has zero home runs and only a 66 wRC+ in his last 115 plate appearances and Cam Collier (Reds No. 3 prospect) has a .186/.243/.335 slash line, though with three home runs, over that same time period.
High-A Pitchers (min 13 IP)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | Noah Schultz | CHW | 99 | 100 |
2 | Luis Perales | BOS | 98 | 99 |
3 | Owen Murphy | ATL | 100 | 98 |
4 | Zebby Matthews | MIN | 88 | 90 |
5 | Jaden Hamm | DET | 96 | 89 |
6 | Chase Dollander | COL | 87 | 89 |
7 | Brett Wichrowski | MIL | 84 | 84 |
8 | Winston Santos | TEX | 81 | 84 |
9 | Moises Chace | BAL | 79 | 82 |
10 | Sean Sullivan | COL | 94 | 81 |
11 | Trevor Martin | TBR | 85 | 80 |
12 | Edgar Portes | BAL | 76 | 80 |
13 | Quinn Mathews | STL | 79 | 80 |
14 | Nolan McLean | NYM | 74 | 79 |
15 | Andry Lara | WSN | 86 | 76 |
16 | Alessandro Ercolani | PIT | 70 | 76 |
17 | Juan Daniel Encarnacion | BOS | 74 | 75 |
18 | Jake Bloss | HOU | 71 | 75 |
19 | Andrew Morris | MIN | 82 | 75 |
20 | Peter Heubeck | LAD | 74 | 74 |
21 | Rhett Lowder | CIN | 78 | 74 |
22 | Juan Nunez | BAL | 71 | 74 |
23 | Joseph Montalvo | TEX | 75 | 73 |
24 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | 70 | 73 |
25 | Mitch Bratt | TEX | 81 | 73 |
Red Sox RHP Luis Perales ranked fifth last week, then exploded for a 12-strikeout performance at the beginning of the week that Josh Norris happened to catch and write about here. Perales has the highest swinging strike rate among all High-A pitchers since April 20 who have accrued at least 11 innings, the fourth-highest strikeout rate, and has managed to keep his walk rate below 9% during that span of 21 innings.
Rangers No. 29 prospect Joseph Montalvo has crept into the top 25 after performing like a top-five pitcher in the last month. This past week, the 24-year-old Puerto Rican righthander hurled 11 innings, striking out 17 hapless batters while only walking one. The 2021 20th-round draft pick has a three-pitch mix headlined by an 80 mph slider that has over 13 inches of horizontal break and gets over 40% whiffs while limiting damage against it to the tune of a .150 xwOBA.
His four-seam fastball is “only” 92 mph but he has over six and a half feet of extension on it, leading it to play up and generate above average whiffs. Interestingly, two weeks ago, he hadn’t hit 93 mph on the gun yet, but has reached 94 mph in the last two weeks. The concern with Montalvo has been his ability to command his pitches, and his 38% ball% on the season for his fastball shows it’s still a work-in-progress. However, judging from his 6% walk rate over his last 24 innings, he is making progress and has put himself in a better position to become a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Double-A Hitters (min 50 PA)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | Agustin Ramirez | NYY | 100 | 100 |
2 | Carson Williams | TBR | 96 | 96 |
3 | Emmanuel Rodriguez | MIN | 95 | 92 |
4 | Alex Freeland | LAD | 87 | 90 |
5 | Matthew Lugo | BOS | 89 | 88 |
6 | Moises Ballesteros | CHC | 82 | 86 |
7 | Harry Ford | SEA | 86 | 86 |
8 | Cole Young | SEA | 81 | 84 |
9 | Roman Anthony | BOS | 77 | 81 |
10 | Jett Williams | NYM | 75 | 79 |
11 | Zac Veen | COL | 79 | 74 |
12 | Samuel Basallo | BAL | 79 | 74 |
13 | Deyvison De Los Santos | ARI | 82 | 71 |
14 | Jacob Wilson | OAK | 71 | 71 |
15 | Dylan Beavers | BAL | 75 | 71 |
16 | Colby Thomas | OAK | 67 | 70 |
17 | Marcelo Mayer | BOS | 66 | 69 |
18 | James Triantos | CHC | 64 | 69 |
19 | Mike Boeve | MIL | 61 | 69 |
20 | Brady House | WSN | 79 | 69 |
21 | Tyler Locklear | SEA | 68 | 69 |
22 | Brooks Baldwin | CHW | 68 | 68 |
23 | Nacho Alvarez Jr. | ATL | 67 | 68 |
24 | Benjamin Cowles | NYY | 65 | 67 |
25 | Edgar Quero | CHW | 63 | 67 |
On April 20, Mariners top prospect Cole Young had no home runs and an 87 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances. It appeared on the surface that perhaps being assigned to Double-A Arkansas at 20 years old was too aggressive. Since then, however, in just under 120 plate appearances, he’s hit four bombs while stealing four bases and chipped in a wRC+ of 120. As one of only seven players who are 20 years old or younger in Double-A, Young is in the 90th percentile for avoiding strikeouts and RoboScout sees him as a hitter with above-average batting average and on-base ability, 20 home run power at peak and 10 to 15 stolen bases. Add in the fact that he also plays solid up-the-middle defense and you have an easy top-50 fantasy prospect.
Alex Freeland (Dodgers No. 27 prospect) has not stopped hitting since being promoted to Double-A at the end of April. He has a 185 wRC+, three home runs and six stolen bases at the level with more walks than strikeouts. Continuing to show his excellent swing decisions, and maintain the incredible halving of his whiff rate from 2023, Freeland is one of the top breakouts of 2024 for me.
After beginning the Double-A season as the youngest hitter in the league, Nelson Rada (Angels No. 2 prospect) started off abysmally slow with a 32 wRC+ in his first 53 plate appearances. Since then, the Angels outfielder has a 116 wRC+ with 15 stolen bases in just over 100 plate appearances. As a reminder, he is the youngest hitter in the league and on the season has a lower strikeout rate than Carson Williams (Rays No. 2 prospect), Emmanuel Rodriguez (Twins No. 2 prospect) and Roman Anthony (Red Sox No. 1 prospect) while having a higher on-base percentage than James Triantos (Cubs No. 10 prospect) and Samuel Basallo (Orioles No. 2 prospect).
There are certainly valid concerns. Rada has a 58% groundball rate. His exit velocities are much improved from last year: His 90th percentile exit velocity is higher than Kyle Teel (Red Sox No. 3 prospect) for example, and a maximum exit velocity that is nearly 6 mph higher than Jett Williams (Mets No. 1 prospect). But his 6% barrel rate speaks to his inability to actualize his hardest hit balls at the ideal launch angles. Although he is not currently on the season rankings on account of his slow start, his solid May would have him firmly in the top 20 Double-A rankings if RoboScout ignored the first three weeks of the season.
Double-A Pitchers (min 13 IP)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | Zebby Matthews | MIN | 97 | 100 |
2 | Yilber Diaz | ARI | 100 | 98 |
3 | Chandler Champlain | KCR | 99 | 95 |
4 | Carson Palmquist | COL | 94 | 94 |
5 | Tink Hence | STL | 99 | 92 |
6 | Ben Casparius | LAD | 87 | 91 |
7 | Blade Tidwell | NYM | 86 | 91 |
8 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | 97 | 90 |
9 | Ian Seymour | TBR | 100 | 90 |
10 | Miguel Ullola | HOU | 84 | 88 |
11 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | 86 | 88 |
12 | Zach Penrod | BOS | 94 | 87 |
13 | Brandon Young | BAL | 95 | 87 |
14 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | 87 | 86 |
15 | Kyle McGowin | CHC | 84 | 85 |
16 | Jackson Jobe | DET | 79 | 85 |
17 | Mason Adams | CHW | 94 | 85 |
18 | Mason Barnett | KCR | 88 | 84 |
19 | Ian Mejia | ATL | 90 | 84 |
20 | Tyler Stuart | NYM | 85 | 83 |
21 | Ty Madden | DET | 88 | 83 |
22 | Jake Bloss | HOU | 80 | 83 |
23 | Cameron Weston | BAL | 86 | 81 |
24 | Tyler Woessner | MIL | 95 | 80 |
25 | Doug Nikhazy | CLE | 82 | 80 |
Braves righty Spencer Schwellenbach has made a big impression at Double-A despite only making two appearances at the level. He debuts at eighth after striking out 39% of batters and walking just 2% through 13 innings. The 24-year-old throws a 95 mph four-seam and an 86 mph slider that’s two ticks faster than 2023. Both get above-average whiffs and an above-average xwOBA against both (compared to league average for both offerings). He also adds in a curveball and an effective changeup. Injury risk was the concern for the former two-way player and so far in 2024 he seems to be showing excellent durability, going six innings and seven innings respectively in his last two starts. For more details on the pitch mix, read Geoff’s Friday Intel piece here.
Another 24-year-old Braves pitcher popping recently in Double-A—and was promoted to Triple-A earlier this week—is Ian Mejia, who famously was part of a no-hitter last week, striking out 11 over seven innings and only walking two. Primarily a fastball/slider mix with a changeup thrown in for good measure, Mejia doesn’t have eye-popping stuff—his fastball only averages 92 mph—but he commands its above-average ride characteristics and it has limited opposing quality of contact in 2024.
In his first 14.1 innings to start the year, preseason revelation Logan Evans (Mariners No. 7 prospect) had a 4.6 K/9, walked more than he struck out and only managed to get hitters to swing and miss at 7% of his pitches. Since that time, the 12th-round pick has a 0.87 WHIP, an identical 0.87 ERA, and a 53% groundball rate over his last 31 innings as he is starting to command and sequence his six-pitch mix better.
Triple-A Hitters (min 45 PA)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | James Wood | WSN | 100 | 100 |
2 | Heston Kjerstad | BAL | 86 | 89 |
3 | Coby Mayo | BAL | 83 | 87 |
4 | Jackson Holliday | BAL | 85 | 87 |
5 | Jose Fermin | STL | 80 | 86 |
6 | Kyle Manzardo | CLE | 75 | 83 |
7 | Miguel Vargas | LAD | 73 | 79 |
8 | Jonah Bride | MIA | 71 | 77 |
9 | Niko Kavadas | BOS | 69 | 75 |
10 | Andy Pages | LAD | 69 | 74 |
11 | Joey Loperfido | HOU | 73 | 73 |
12 | Tyler Black | MIL | 66 | 72 |
13 | Addison Barger | TOR | 63 | 71 |
14 | Javier Sanoja | MIA | 62 | 71 |
15 | Junior Caminero | TBR | 67 | 70 |
16 | Ji Hwan Bae | PIT | 65 | 70 |
17 | Jonatan Clase | SEA | 62 | 67 |
18 | Caleb Durbin | NYY | 66 | 67 |
19 | Chase Meidroth | BOS | 57 | 67 |
20 | Isaac Collins | MIL | 55 | 67 |
21 | Daniel Schneemann | CLE | 60 | 66 |
22 | Heliot Ramos | SFG | 55 | 65 |
23 | Orelvis Martinez | TOR | 65 | 64 |
24 | Jordan Beck | COL | 57 | 64 |
25 | Enmanuel Valdez | BOS | 52 | 63 |
Marlins No. 21 prospect Javier Sanoja is interesting. He’s one of six Triple-A hitters in their age-21 season or younger, and fits the Jose Fermin (Cardinals), Marco Vargas (Mets No. 17 prospect) and Chase Meidroth (Red Sox No. 12 prospect) mold of excellent bat-to-ball skills but not much oomph. In just over 120 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors, Sanoja hit his first home run yesterday and has only three stolen bases. But he’s striking out at a sub-6% clip, the second-lowest rate behind Fermin. Despite playing against pitchers who are six years older than him on average, Sanoja has managed to increase his 90th percentile exit velocity, reduced his chase rate, and increased his contact and barrel rates from 2023 when he spent most of the year in Low-A.
His 112 wRC+ at 21 years old in Triple-A implies he should be an above-average hitter in the majors with batting averages that could get as high as .280 to .290. He might not be any more impactful than 10 to 12 home runs and 10 to 12 stolen bases, but for those who value the potential Luis Arraez types in fantasy, that looks to be his ceiling, with Nick Madrigal as the likelier profile. With a 5.6% strikeout rate, Sanoja has the 10th-lowest strikeout rate since 2016 amongst hitters age 23 or younger with over 70 plate appearances and the second lowest amongst 21 year olds. Just to put it into perspective, in 2019 Arraez was 22 years old in Triple-A and had a 2.7% strikeout rate while Madrigal was 22 years old in Triple-A in and had a 3.7% strikeout rate.
Old friend alert! Pedro Leon has always shown loud tools but his below-average hit tool has hampered his performance since he arrived on the scene in 2021. The Astros prospect has never posted a strikeout rate below 28% in the minors. Now 26, it seemed like Leon may never actualize his potential as a center fielder with a huge arm. But so far in 2024, his 23% strikeout rate is the lowest of his professional career and he owns a .301/.386/.568 slash line with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases.
In his first 80 plate appearances in 2024, it looked like more of the same song: he had a 27% strikeout rate and only one home run. Since then, however, he’s had a 150 wRC+ and hit nine home runs over 124 plate appearances, adding eight bags. Comparing his Statcast year over year, he’s reduced his chase rate by six percentage points and added 3 mph to his 90th percentile exit velocity while holding most of the other metrics at his career norms. Whether the swing-decision improvements and newly-consistent hard contact holds is still up for debate, but for the fun of it, let’s compare his statcast data to Owen Caissie (Cubs No. 4 prospect), who it should be noted is five years younger than the Cuban:
Contact% | zContact% | 90thEV | “Barrel”% | Max EV | Chase% | |
P Leon | 70% | 79% | 109 mph | 17% | 114 mph | 23% |
O Caissie | 70% | 80% | 108 mph | 13% | 115 mph | 24% |
The Astros have just gotten Chas McCormick back from injury and Jake Meyers has been hitting well too, so it’s not clear whether Leon will get a playing time opportunity this year. But if he does, RoboScout expects per plate appearance performance in the Sam Hilliard and (pre-2024) Dylan Moore mold: above-average power and speed while trading off batting average and conducive to streaks.
Triple-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)
Rank | Name | Team | Robo | RoboCast |
1 | Paul Skenes | PIT | 100 | 100 |
2 | Christian Scott | NYM | 92 | 92 |
3 | Jack Leiter | TEX | 90 | 89 |
4 | Cade Povich | BAL | 89 | 80 |
5 | Matt Manning | DET | 76 | 78 |
6 | David Festa | MIN | 83 | 78 |
7 | Louie Varland | MIN | 78 | 76 |
8 | Chayce McDermott | BAL | 75 | 76 |
9 | Brant Hurter | DET | 76 | 75 |
10 | Mason Black | SFG | 72 | 74 |
11 | Tobias Myers | MIL | 69 | 74 |
12 | Elieser Hernandez | LAD | 70 | 72 |
13 | Carson Spiers | CIN | 69 | 72 |
14 | Robert Gasser | MIL | 67 | 71 |
15 | Will Warren | NYY | 66 | 71 |
16 | Alek Manoah | TOR | 74 | 71 |
17 | Quinn Priester | PIT | 81 | 71 |
18 | Chad Patrick | MIL | 71 | 71 |
19 | Gerson Garabito | TEX | 71 | 69 |
20 | Osvaldo Bido | OAK | 70 | 69 |
21 | Albert Suarez | BAL | 73 | 68 |
22 | Jacob Waguespack | TBR | 77 | 68 |
23 | Joe Rock | TBR | 77 | 68 |
24 | Shaun Anderson | TEX | 70 | 67 |
25 | Jhonathan Diaz | SEA | 79 | 67 |
The two hottest pitchers in Triple-A the last five weeks have been Chayce McDermott (Orioles No. 7 prospect) and David Festa (Twins No. 5 prospect) who have put up near identical lines (through Friday’s games) with the notable exception of their groundball rates:
IP | K% | BB% | SwStrk% | IP/G | GB% | |
Chayce McDermott | 26 | 40.3% | 9.2% | 16.5% | 4.3 | 22% |
David Festa | 21.2 | 40.4% | 9.0% | 16.4% | 4.2 | 43.5% |
They both have above-average four-seam, slider and changeup arsenals that each elicit an above-average whiff rate compared to league average—and both mix in the occasional curveball.The surprise of the week belongs to Chad Patrick (Brewers) who struck out 12 batters over five innings, while walking only two and finds himself in the Top 15 as a result. Originally viewed as a depth arm when acquired from the Athletics for Abraham Toro, Patrick has a cutter with high IVB that is his best pitch per Stuff+ and an ultra-flat 93 mph four-seam that generates plus whiffs. Hitters have an xwOBA one standard deviation worse than league average against it. Not a pitcher on my radar even as recently as last week, RoboScout thinks he could very well be a positive contributor in a rotation this year. That’s the stuff we love RoboScout for!