How To Watch NCAA Baseball Top 25 Teams, Best Matchups & More This Weekend: Week 14

Image credit: Andrew Fischer (Danny Parker/Four Seam Images)

I feel like I say this each May now, but the regular season flew by. While there is still over a month left, 2024 has been an exciting year for college baseball. It seems as if more eyes than ever were on the game, and a number of teams and players captured the hearts of fans across the country. With today being the start of the final weekend of the regular season, I wanted to format this piece a little differently than usual. Rather than highlight four matchups—and a handful of others—to keep an eye on, I wanted to go conference by conference and discuss the overall tournament implications. No matter who you root for, there is a lot to follow around the country this weekend.

Additionally, here are some helpful links to aid your college baseball consumption this weekend…

ACC

There are a few key matchups this weekend in the ACC, headlined by a marquee matchup between No. 7 Wake Forest and No. 9 NC State. The Demon Deacons last weekend notched a big-time sweep of No. 10 Clemson to put themselves in an excellent spot to host. They are now 8th in RPI, have a pair of key series wins over Florida State and Clemson, and unless they get swept will still be in a strong position to host. Wake right now is a lot closer to being a top-eight national seed than it is to not hosting.

NC State is a lock for the tournament and its path to hosting seems rather simple: win the series this weekend. Should the Wolfpack take at least two games from the Deacs, they will have series wins over No. 4 North Carolina, No. 7 Wake Forest, No. 10 Clemson, No. 13 Duke and No. 14 Virginia. Even with their midweek woes, that is going to be a near-impossible resume to keep from hosting.

Speaking of the Tar Heel State, No. 4 North Carolina has established itself as a top-eight national seed barring something unforeseen. Meanwhile, Duke is on the outside looking in when it comes to hosting and really needs a series win this weekend to put itself back in the top-16 conversation. Its RPI of 23 is underwhelming, and so is its non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 211th. Unless they go on a deep run in the ACC Tournament that includes a couple of big wins, a series win this weekend is imperative for the Blue Devils if they want to host.

Elsewhere, Virginia should cement itself as a host with a series win over rival Virginia Tech this weekend. The Hokies, however, must come away with a series win in order to remain on the bubble and keep its at-large hopes alive. Georgia Tech travels to Tallahassee to take on No. 11 Florida State, and a series win would put it in the tournament. A series loss isn’t a death blow to the Yellow Jackets’ at-large hopes, though they would need to make some noise in the ACC Tournament. A sweep would be detrimental.

After taking a brutal sweep to North Carolina last weekend, Louisville again finds itself in a precarious position. Its RPI is underwhelming at 61, and so is its non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 247th nationally. Last weekend undid a lot of the Cardinals’ hard work, and they now must sweep their series this weekend against Notre Dame to reach the all-important 16 ACC wins threshold. If Louisville comes out of this weekend with anything less than a sweep, it will have work to do next week in Charlotte.

Big 12

The Big 12 has been one of the more competitive—and tough to figure out—conferences all season. No. 16 Oklahoma has separated itself from the pack a little bit and has already secured the regular-season title, and the Sooners have all but cemented themselves as hosts. In fact, a top-eight national seed is well within reach. Should they continue their winning ways this weekend against Cincinnati and not lay a complete egg next week in Arlington, the Sooners will have a compelling case for a national seed.

The Bearcats have won five of their last six conference series and have positioned themselves squarely on the bubble. A massive series win this weekend likely would secure an at-large bid, but a loss would leave them with their work cut out for them in the conference tournament. A series loss would not be totally detrimental, though a sweep would be.

Kansas State enters this weekend with a little bit of work to do to get its conference record above .500, but it has a forgiving matchup against last-place BYU. With their RPI in a solid spot, the Wildcats just need to win their series this weekend. The series this weekend with the highest stakes is between West Virginia and TCU. The Mountaineers are safely in the field, and TCU is on the right side of the bubble since winning seven of its last eight games. A series win would lock up an at-large bid for the Horned Frogs, and they would still probably be safe with a series loss. The goal this weekend for them is simple: don’t get swept.

Texas and Kansas is also an intriguing matchup, but it is a series that is far more important for the Jayhawks than it is the Longhorns. They have a solid record of 29-18, including 15-12 in the Big 12, though their RPI is at 63 and they have just seven combined wins against quad 1 and quad 2 teams. Not only is this weekend a must-win series for Kansas, but it might even be a must-sweep. Even if it picks up a pair of wins, Kansas will still need to make a bit of a run in Arlington.

Texas is essentially a lock for the tournament, barring a sweep this weekend and an 0-2 showing in the conference tournament. That doomsday scenario feels highly unlikely, so just a single win this weekend would seal the Longhorns’ fate.

Big Ten

The Big Ten this year has been a pleasant surprise. It has been a highly-competitive conference, and five teams are still vying for the regular-season title. When it comes to the tournament, however, Nebraska is the only lock. While a number of teams have put together solid seasons, it still feels like a two-bid league when all is said and done.

I don’t think anyone outside of the Cornhuskers can feel totally safe about their resume, even with a series win this weekend. A series win for teams like Indiana, Illinois or Purdue would simply keep its tournament hopes alive, while a series loss would be a brutal blow. The Fighting Illini and Boilermakers square off in West Lafayette in what is essentially a “loser leaves town” matchup. Illinois is a game ahead of Nebraska for first place in the conference standings, and a regular-season title would provide a boost to its resume.

Purdue has lost consecutive Big Ten series, and its only path to the tournament at this point is likely winning the conference tournament. If the Boilermakers can somehow sweep this weekend’s series, win the regular-season conference championship and make a deep run in the conference tournament, then *maybe* there is a path to an at-large bid. However, that feels highly unlikely.

Indiana has a tricky series against Michigan, and even with a sweep the Hoosiers would not be totally safe when it comes to earning an at-large bid. They are probably in the best spot of any of the other teams mentioned, though a series loss to the Wolverines this weekend would likely spell disaster.

Pac-12

There has been no shortage of excitement in the “Conference of Champions’” this season. This weekend’s matchup between No. 21 Arizona and No. 8 Oregon State—both of whom are locks to make the tournament—will decide the regular-season champion. The Wildcats are playing the best baseball of any team in the conference right now and have won five of their last six Pac-12 series. Not only is it a lock for the tournament, but there is also a potential path for Arizona to host. That path includes a series win this weekend over the Beavers and likely a couple of wins in Scottsdale.

Oregon State is safely in the field, though its hosting resume is hazy. There is plenty to like on the surface: the Beavers are 39-12, will likely eclipse the 40-win mark, could win the Pac-12’s regular-season championship and are currently No. 8 in the country. However, they have just one quad 1 win this season and their RPI of 14 does not provide their resume with a sizable boost given their lack of quality wins. With all of that being said, a series win this weekend likely cements the Beavers as hosts.

Oregon this weekend takes on second-to-last place Washington State in what is a must-win series for the Ducks. That sounds more dramatic than where they currently are—which is safely in the field of 64—but a series loss would deal considerable damage to their at-large resume.

California and Utah are the last two teams vying for at-large bids, but both right now are on the outside looking in. With RPIs of 66 and 74, respectively, the Golden Bears and Utes have their work cut out for them. A sweep this weekend of last-place Washington would up Cal’s conference win total to 19—a number that is hard to ignore—but it still would likely need a couple of wins in Scottsdale. Utah is in an even trickier spot, and this weekend feels like a must-sweep to keep its already-slim at-large hopes alive. Should the Utes sweep, they will still need to rip off a few wins in the conference tournament.

SEC

There is a lot to sort through in the SEC, but a good place to start is with the teams who are virtual locks to be top-eight national seeds. Regardless of who takes home the regular-season conference title—which would be a nice feather in the cap of Kentucky, Tennessee or Arkansas—the ‘Cats, Volunteers, Razorbacks and Aggies all feel like safe bets to be national seeds.

On top of that quartet, Georgia—who for my money’s worth is playing the best baseball right now of any team in the country—is also in the mix. The Bulldogs currently sit at No. 3 in RPI and have notched sweeps of Alabama, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. The one “knock” against their top-eight resume is that they lack a marquee series win and their series losses to Kentucky, Tennessee and Texas A&M will have them a little further back in line, but a series win over Florida and a couple of wins in Hoover would make it awfully hard on the committee. Nonetheless, the Bulldogs can feel excellent about their hosting aspirations.

Mississippi State is in the tournament no matter what, but it is right on the hosting line. A series win this weekend over Missouri is obviously a must, and with two or more wins in Hoover the Bulldogs will have built quite a resume to host. South Carolina has all but locked up an at-large bid, but it would be in the Gamecocks’ best interest to not get swept this weekend at top-ranked Tennessee.

Alabama’s resume is one of the weirder ones in the conference. Its underlying metrics—RPI of 11, third-ranked strength of schedule and 12 quad 1 wins—are all positive, but its SEC record of 12-15 is underwhelming. The under-the-hood numbers outweigh the Tide’s lackluster conference record, and so long as they don’t get swept this weekend they are safely in the field.

Mississippi, LSU, Vanderbilt and Florida are all still fighting for at-large bids. The Commodores’ RPI of 28 and top-20 strength of schedule are both quality metrics, though for them to feel completely safe they likely need one win this weekend at No. 2 Kentucky. Ole Miss and LSU play each other, and that series will provide some much-needed clarity to each team’s situation. Should the Rebels come away with a road series win, they would position themselves on the right side of the bubble, especially given their top-25 RPI and top-ranked strength of schedule. A series loss would not completely dash their at-large hopes, but they would head into the conference tournament with work to be done.

LSU’s situation is more straightforward. With just 10 conference wins, this weekend’s series is a must-win—potentially even must-sweep—for the Tigers. Should they drop the series, the Tigers will head into Hoover needing to make a mighty deep run.

Florida this weekend has a must-win series at No. 6 Georgia. On top of needing a pair of wins to get to 13 conference victories, the Gators also need it to make sure they finish the season with an overall record over .500—a requirement for any at-large tournament team. To say Florida has its work cut out for it would be an understatement. A series victory would potentially position the Gators on the right side of the bubble, but that is a lot easier said than done.

Others

The Ivy League and Patriot League will each crown conference champions this weekend. Columbia ran away with the Ivy League’s regular-season title to the tune of a 17-4 conference record, while in the Patriot League, Army is seeking a remarkable sixth straight conference tournament championship. The Black Knights this weekend take on Navy in what is a fantastic culmination of Patriot League play. The Ivy League has a more traditional four-team conference tournament that includes Columbia, Princeton, Cornell and Pennsylvania. Keep an eye on the fourth-seeded Quakers—last year’s conference tournament champions—as a dark horse.

Dallas Baptist and Louisiana Tech are currently tied atop the Conference USA standings, though the Bulldogs own the tiebreaker thanks to their series win over the Patriots. DBU this weekend takes on Middle Tennessee State—who is just 19-32 this season—while LaTech travels to fourth-place Liberty.

In the Coastal Athletic Association, UNCW leads College of Charleston by just half a game atop the conference standings. The Cougars earlier this season picked up a key series victory over the Seahawks, so they own the tiebreaker. However, Charleston has played one less conference game this season than UNCW, so they will need to gain a game this weekend on the Seahawks in order to win the regular-season championship. Wilmington has a difficult road series against fourth-place Delaware, while Charleston is on the road against Elon.