10 Teenage Position Prospects With Standout Data
Image credit: St.Lucie Mets' Jesus Baez during a MiLB game against the Tampa Tarpons on April 19,2024 at Clover Park. (Photo/Tom DiPace)
It’s still very early in the minor league season as all four full-season levels are in their third week of action. While we’re still dealing with incredibly small sample sizes, it’s important to note development year over year, as Ben Badler did yesterday in his pitching breakout article. A jump in a pitcher’s stuff is recognizable within a few innings of work or even a few batters, but we need a greater sample to evaluate changes to a hitter’s approach or in-game power.
While we’re still a few weeks away from a similar deep dive on hitting, we can identify young players showing outlier skills that differentiate themselves from their peers. It’s easy to identify players who standout when it comes to power skills as teenagers.
Today we’ll look at 10 hitters who meet the following thresholds: 19 years of age or younger, a contact rate above 69%, a in-zone contact rate of 80% or higher, a chase rate of 31% or below and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 102 mph or higher.
As we explored earlier this year, exit velocities improve as players age. This stands up to reason as players reach their physical peaks in their mid 20s. An average 90th percentile exit velocity for a 19-year-old based on last season’s data is 99.1 mph. The average doesn’t meet the 102 mph threshold we have set here until age 23, meaning these players all have shown above-average raw with average or better plate skills.
Josue De Paula, OF, Dodgers
The Dodgers outfielder became a Top 100 Prospect late this offseason and is one of the most impressive combinations of plate skills and raw power in the minor leagues. De Paula made headlines in the backfields for consecutive springs and there’s some feeling within the industry that he’s on the cusp of a power breakout. De Paula rarely misses in-zone with a 86.4% in-zone miss rate. He hardly ever expands the zone as well with a chase rate of just 15.3%. While De Paula’s skills are fully actualized and easy to see, it’s his power potential that has scouts and fans alike excited. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.8 mph is well above the major league average of 103.7 mph. The biggest issue for De Paula is learning to make his best contact in the air, and unlocking pull-side power.
Jefferson Rojas, SS, Cubs
There’s a group of high helium names in the lower minors. At the moment, Rojas might be chief among them. The Cubs’ No. 10 prospect made his way onto the Top 100 list just a few weeks ago and has been performing for High-A South Bend. Jefferson just turned 18 on April 25 and shows an advanced tool set at the plate. Rojas blends excellent bat-to-ball skills (92.2% in-zone contact) and above-average raw power (103.3 mph 90th percentile EV). While Rojas isn’t a pure slugger, he shows the ability to elevate the ball with consistency, as his 20 degree launch angle hints at. Rojas has advanced bat-to-ball skills with good enough swing decisions to balance some of his aggressive tendencies. The infielder should be one of the biggest risers this offseason.
Zyhir Hope, OF, Dodgers
It’s hard to argue with the Cubs’ acquisition of Michael Busch. He’s been an important piece for them early this season. That said, any time the Dodgers come calling and ask for prospects, there’s typically a great reason behind it. As the Dodgers have done many times before, it looks like the inclusion of Hope in the Busch trade could wind up being something of a mini-coup.
So far Hope’s data is pristine. He’s making contact 88.9% of the time in-zone, chasing at a rate of 19.3% while showing elite exit velocities. In fact, Hope’s 108.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity ranks in the top 40 for the entire minor leagues. His batted ball angles are inconsistent, but he’s showing the ability to elevate the ball on hard contact. Hope entered the season off of the Cubs and Dodgers Top 30 list, but should rocket up the Dodgers list in the forthcoming update.
Jaison Chourio, OF, Guardians
When one Chourio graduates, another rises in the lower levels. While Jaison is not the equal to his older brother on the Brewers, he’s a very good prospect in his own right. Like his older brother, Jaison is showing above-average hitting ability. While Jackson was an explosive power hitter, Jaison is a highly skilled player with above-average but not plus raw power. So far on the season Chourio is showing underlying data that points to potentially elite plate skills. His overall contact rate is above 80%, while his in-zone contact is around 87% with a low chase rate of just 13.8%. His 102.4 90th percentile exit velocity is well above the average for a player 19 years of age or younger. Theres a lot of groundball contact at present and Chourio will need to learn to elevate to get the most out of his raw power.
Ralphy Velazquez, 1B, Guardians
Positionless bat-first prospects are often a difficult group of players to rank. The amount of pressure put on that profile to hit at an elite rate makes it a difficult demographic to fish in. Despite murky waters, the Guardians might have reeled in a unique talent in Velazquez. A standout high school player for the highly successful Huntington Beach HS program, Velazquez is a special mix of plate skills and double-plus raw power.
While Velazquez does have some swing and miss to his game it’s rarely in-zone, as his 83.1 in-zone contact rate shows. While he will chase, his 25% out-of-zone swing rate shows a balance of aggression and patience. Ralphy’s plate skills are solid, but it’s his outlier raw power that drives the ship. His 108.7 mph ranks neck and neck with Dodgers prospect Zyhir Hope and ranks within the top 40 in 90th percentile EV in the entire minor leagues. He puts the ball in the air consistently as well with a 48% line drive + flyball rate in 2024.
Jonny Farmelo, OF, Mariners
The Mariners landed a trio of talented high school players in the first round last July. Farmelo might be the least famous behind Colt Emerson and Tai Peete, but he’s showing well over the early part of the season and gaining significant buzz. A double-plus runner and a strong defender in center field. Farmelo is showing outlier skills to begin the season. His hit tool is showing characteristics of developing into plus with an in-zone contact rate of 86.9% and a chase rate of 23% while putting 50% of his balls in play in the air as either line drives or flyballs. Farmelo’s showing some power as well with a 102.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, well above the benchmark for his age and level. Farmelo is an exciting tooled up player showing advanced plate skills and some raw power.
Jeral Perez, 2B, Dodgers
Last week, Roboscout highlighted Perez for his early-season exploits ranking as the top hitter in Low-A. The Dodgers signed Perez during the 2022 international signing period and he’s done nothing but hit since joining the organization. After tying for the Arizona Complex League home run title last season, Perez hasn’t let up in his early season play with Low-A Rancho Cucamonga.
Perez combines potentially plus plate skills with plus bat speed that generates well above-average exit velocities. So far on the season Perez has a 84.8% in-zone contact rate with a 18.4% chase rate. While Perez’s plate skills are excellent it’s his power that drives the excitement around his bat. Perez’s 105.1 mph 90th percentile EV is above the major league average and over five mph beyond the benchmark for his age and level. Perez gets the ball in the air as well with a 48% flyball+line drive rate on the season.
Josue Briceño, C, Tigers
This spring I got to see Briceño up close and it’s clear that Briceño has an outlier combination of power and bat-to-ball skills. On the season, Briceño is running a 91% in-zone contact rate with a 19% chase rate, hinting at a potentially plus hit tool. While the contact is eye-catching, his 107.5 mph 90th exit velocity drives home just how special Briceño’s combination of bat-to-ball skills and double-plus raw power is. The biggest question marks around Briceño’s profile is his defensive ability, with many believing he’s a 1B/DH long term.
Ricardo Cabrera, SS, Reds
One of the top signings in the 2022 international class, Cabrera has impressed since coming stateside. He shook off an underwhelming debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2022 and had an outstanding season in the Arizona Complex League seeing a late-season cup of coffee with Low-A Daytona. Cabrera shows solid bat-to-ball skills with a 80% in-zone contact rate and good swing decisions with a 21.4% chase rate. There’s some power in Cabrera’s game with a 90th percentile exit velocity of 102.3 mph. Cabrera is still learning to elevate the ball, and doesn’t have as robust of plate skills or power compared to others on this list.
Jesus Baez, SS, Mets
Another well-known signee from the 2022 international signing class, the Mets’ Baez is showing strong skills in his full-season debut despite fringy production so far. Production has been an issue for Baez as the tools and skills have not matched the numbers over his first two professional seasons split between the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex.
In fact, Baez may have some of the best underlying data on the list thus far this season. He has an in-zone contact rate of 89.6%, a chase rate of 20.6% and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.2 mph. Under the hood this looks like a potential Top 100 Prospect. Much of Baez’s struggles are rooted in poor luck, because he’s hitting the ball in the air 55% of the time between line drives and flyballs and has a well above-average average fly ball distance. While the numbers are yet to catchup to the skills, it’s worthwhile to keep an on Baez to see if the cream rises to the top.
