Analyzing Top 2024 MLB Draft College Pitchers Using Stuff+

Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

BA Rank: 4 | 120 BA Stuff+ Grade (Arsenal)

Burns is the top-rated pitcher on our board. He has the second-highest Stuff+ score, trailing only Dallas Baptist’s Ryan Johnson, when setting the total pitches filter to 800 or more pitches thrown this season (this is specific to trackman devices). 

Burns’ mix is primarily fastball and slider seeing 49% and 34% usage, respectively. He mixes in a curveball 9% of the time and a changeup 6% of the time (there’s a 2% cutter usage but it’s a very small sample). 

The righthander’s fastball grades out as a 122 on our Stuff+ model. His combination of elite velocity (97.9 mph fastball average) and vertical movement (20+ inches of induced vertical break) drives the grade to well within plus or better territory by the numbers. His slider is every bit equal to the fastball. The pitch grades as a 124 Stuff+. It sits 87-88 mph peaking at 91 mph with on average eight inches of horizontal break. 

Burns’ third pitch, his curveball, grades out well too at a 114 Stuff+. It has hard two-plane break, sitting 82-83 mph with more than eight inches of drop paired with over eight inches of sweep. Burns has the best stuff grade arsenal of the first-round college arms. He has pitched his way into the top five picks if the draft was today.

Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

BA Rank: 6 | 113 BA Stuff+ Grade (Arsenal)

The Arkansas ace has steadily improved over three seasons with the Razorbacks. Smith has cut his walk rate, increased his strikeout rate while limiting hard contact. Despite excellent production, SEC performance and pedigree, there are some health questions. Smith underwent Tommy John surgery as a high school junior. 

Still, he leads Division I pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings (16.98) while ranking in the top four in ERA and WHIP. There’s no doubting his performance. The lefthander has good stuff and sharpened his command. It should come as no shock he ranks tied for 11th in overall arsenal-based Stuff+ with a score of 113 (sample size of more than 700 pitches thrown). 

Smith primarily relies on his four-seamer (50% usage) and slider (36% usage). He’ll mix in a changeup 7-8% of the time and a curveball just 2% of the time. Smith’s heater grades out at 116 on our Stuff+ scale. His combination of plus velocity, movement and a low release compares well against his peers. His above-average slider, particularly for a lefthander, sits 84-85 mph with around 5-6 inches of sweep on average. It’s sort of a cutter, and it grades out at 113 on our Stuff+ scale. 

Smith’s third pitch, his changeup, grades out around average with roughly 10 inches of vertical break and 14 inches of run. Smith has the second-best stuff grade of the arms we’re examining, trailing only Burns, but it’s close. You can even make a case that Smith’s fastball is better.

Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

BA Rank: 10 | 111 BA Stuff+ Grade (Arsenal) 

East Carolina may technically be a mid-major, but it’s a college baseball powerhouse. The program has produced multiple day one pitchers in recent years in RHP Gavin Williams and LHP Carson Whisenhunt. Yesavage has a chance to go even higher. He could become the highest Pirates draft pick since Jeff Hoffman went No. 9 overall in 2014. Yesavage has steadily risen draft boards all spring and currently ranks within the top 10 in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings and hits per nine innings. 

Yesavage’s pitch mix consists of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. He uses his fastball 51% of the time. His secondary usage is split fairly evenly between his slider (23%) and changeup (18%) while his curveball lags behind at just 5% usage. 

The righthander’s fastball grades out at 119 on our Stuff+ scale with elite induced vertical break numbers, averaging 22 inches of IVB. Even if that number is slightly out of line compared to what it’d register on a Hawkeye device, there’s no doubt Yesavage can ride it. He sits 94-95 mph on his four-seam as well touching 97 at peak from a vertical release point.

His slider is his primary secondary and sits 85-86 mph with tight gyro shape. The pitch grades out as a 110 on Stuff+ scale, an above-average pitch but one that isn’t an outlier. His changeup grades out as a 94 on Stuff+, which is actually the fourth-highest changeup grade among pitchers with 700 or more pitches. Changeups tend to not grade well on Stuff models, but Yesavage’s does compared to his peers. The pitch has an 11 mph gap off of the fastball with a -4 degree difference in vertical approach angle, hinting at significant vertical and velocity separation. 

Overall, Yesavage has the most complete arsenal driven by the best quality changeup, but his fastball and slider grade out behind Burns and Smith.

Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke

BA Rank: 26 | 109 BA Stuff+ Grade (Arsenal) 

Santucci was a two-way prep star in Massachusetts who played with Marlins LHP Thomas White at Phillips Andover. He remained a two-way player over his first two seasons with Duke, but moved to a pitcher-only role heading into his junior season. Santucci started hot, throwing 17 scoreless innings in his first three starts, but conference play has been a mixed bag. Santucci struggled against Wake Forest, NC State and Virginia Tech.

He’s shown swing-and-miss stuff, registering the 12th-highest strikeout rate among qualified Division I starters. The No. 2 college lefty in our rankings behind Arkansas’ Smith, Santucci is an athletic mover who mixes five different pitch shapes. His arsenal consists of a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, curveball and changeup. The lefthander has good stuff – four of his pitchers grade as above-average or better. 

Santucci primarily uses his four-seamer. When you factor in his two-seam usage, he throws a fastball roughly half the time. His four-seamer is his highest-rated pitch and the best in his arsenal. The pitch sits 93-94 and touches 97 mph at peak with 19 inches of induced vertical break on average and 11-12 inches of armside run. The fastball has a flatter plane of approach, registering a -4.35 degree vertical approach angle (VAA). All of these elements contribute to a 116 Stuff+ score. 

Santucci’s low-to-mid-80s slider is his next best offering. It has around five inches of horizontal break, giving it some cutter elements. The slider scores a 109 on Stuff+, the same score as his curveball, which is a variation of the slider with more depth. 

Santucci’s arsenal is powerful, but a few more ticks of velocity could push him to another level. That’s a realistic expectation as he ages, but it puts the onus on his strike-throwing to remain a starter. His 6.4 walks per nine innings is a fairly large red flag, no matter how good the stuff is.

Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee

BA Rank: 29 | 104 BA Stuff+ Grade (Arsenal)

Beam has been a steady performer for the Volunteers over the last three seasons since a standout freshman campaign in 2022. He can go deep into games and get outs, even despite a lack of swing and miss in his game. Beam has 49 strikeouts over 55.2 innings, but has shown pristine control, walking just 12 batters across 10 starts this season. He does a good job mixing pitch shapes and getting the ball on the ground (51% groundball rate). 

The righty mixes six pitches fairly evenly between two fastball shapes in a four-seam (27% usage) and two-seam (22%), a curveball (21%), changeup (16%), slider (10%) and cutter (4%). Needless to say, Beam mixes it up and keeps hitters off balance. His two highest-graded pitches on our Staff+ model, his cutter and slider, are his fifth and sixth offerings. 

Beam’s cutter grades out at 116 Stuff+. It’s a traditional 89-90 mph cut-fastball with ride and moderate cut. His slider grades 114 and sits 83-85 mph with gyro cutter type shape. The rest of his offerings have lower Stuff+ grades, but still grade above-average relative to his peers. 

His fastball (105 Stuff+) and sinker (106 Stuff+) each sit 93-95 mph and touch 97 at peak. Beam’s four-seam generates 17-18 inches of induced vertical break on average with 11 inches of horizontal break. His sinker has less vertical break by a few inches with more horizontal. 

Beam’s curveball is his primary breaking ball and has the best Stuff+ score (111) of his primary pitches. His curve sits 79-81 with 5-6 inches of drop and 12-14 inches of sweep. That’s a good combination of sweep and power, and it’s Beam’s most outlier pitch on paper. 

As previously mentioned, Stuff+ scores don’t do a very good job judging changeup quality. Beam does a good job killing lift and generating armside run (17.5 inches of horizontal break on average) on his changeup. 

Beam has a sum of his parts arsenal. He has just solid pitch shapes and lacks outlier release traits unlike other first-round pitchers in this class, though, limiting his ability to generate swings and misses.