Which MLB Team Will Be The Biggest Surprise Of The 2024 Season?

Image credit: Spencer Torkelson (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In a series of MLB predictions and preview posts, BA’s editorial staff goes on record with their bold—and not so bold—thoughts about what’s to come in the 2024 season.

We begin with the question: Which team will be the biggest surprise of the 2024 season?

Our nine prognosticators this year are Ben Badler (BB), Mark Chiarelli (MC), Carlos Collazo (CC), JJ Cooper (JJ), Matt Eddy (ME), Savannah McCann (SM), Josh Norris (JN), Geoff Pontes (GP) and Dylan White (DW).

Tigers

Playing in the AL Central helps, but the Tigers’ young pitchers have returned from injuries, and maybe righthander Jackson Jobe could make an impact at some point. There’s an impressive wave of young hitters ready to arrive, so the pieces are there for the Tigers to take a big step forward in 2024. (JJ)

The Tigers benefit from playing in the weakest division in baseball, but many of their young hitters showed progress in the second half of 2023, and the organization has a few prospects who should join up in 2024. The Tigers extended Colt Keith for six years and $28.6 million, which is a low-risk move for a prospect with strong offensive skills. Detroit’s signings of free agent righthanders Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda add depth to the pitching staff. It wouldn’t be surprising to see steps forward from a young hitting core that includes Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, and 2024 hopefuls Justyn Henry-Malloy and Jace Jung. (CC)

The Tigers counter the loss of Eduardo Rodriguez with a full season of an ascending Tarik Skubal, the pending return of Casey Mize and the eye-opening late-season performances of Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long. That would be reasonable justification to leave the rotation as is, especially with Jackson Jobe—and Ty Madden and Troy Melton—waiting in the wings. Instead, the Tigers signed Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda, plus reliever Shelby Miller, and signed Colt Keith to an extension. With Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene ready to take the next steps forward, and Parker Meadows looking like a potential leadoff hitter and irritant on the bases, the Tigers might surprise in 2024. (DW)

Reds

Cincinnati has a lot of young talent coalescing into a core, and it could play out similarly to the 2023 Orioles or D-backs or the 2022 Mariners. The Reds enter the season with more position talent than they can put on the field at one time, highlighted by the electric Elly De La Cruz, with depth of pitching enhanced by offseason signings Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. The 2024 Reds become an instant contender if young starters Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo recover the form they showed in excellent 2022 rookie seasons. (ME)

The Reds haven’t won the NL Central—or even finished second in the division—since 2012. That will change this year. Cincinnati is chock full of burgeoning impact players, particularly in the infield, where they have more bats than spots available in the starting lineup. That’s a good problem to have, and they could ultimately trade from their surplus to better address their starting pitching if Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott don’t take a step forward. The division is breaking in their favor, too. The Brewers subtracted more than they added this winter, while the average age of the Cardinals’ projected rotation is 35 years old. The Pirates aren’t a threat. And don’t forget the Reds have the No. 2 pick in the draft. Better days are coming in Cincinnati. (MC)

Royals

This is undeniably an “out there” pick, but in a weak AL Central, the Royals might have enough pitching and young, talented hitters to compete for the division in 2024. The Cole Ragans trade looks like it may have netted the Royals a front-of-the-rotation arm. They supplemented that with additions of veterans Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, both pitchers capable of providing solid production in the middle of the rotation. The bullpen has a solid corps of arms with veteran lefthander Will Smith at the back. The top half of the Royals’ lineup is solid, led by Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. (GP)

Brewers

Despite trading Corbin Burnes, the Brewers added Jackson Chourio and could get full seasons of contributions from the likes of Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick as well. Jeferson Quero could make his impact felt at some point in the season. If Milwaukee can harness DL Hall’s dastardly stuff, he could be a weapon in the rotation too. Ditto for righthander Jacob Misiorowski. (JN)

Padres

The Padres went 82-80 last year despite outscoring their opponents by more than 100 runs, a disconnect that stems from their brutal record in one-run games (9-23) and extra-inning contests (2-12). It’s not the same team in 2024—subtracting Juan Soto and Blake Snell will hurt—but there is still a talented lineup intact and a roster with better depth that was missing last year. Expectations are much lower this season, but there’s an opportunity for them to be one of the surprise teams in a wide-open NL playoff field. (BB)