The Baltimore Orioles Were Remade Into Winners, Ahead Of Schedule

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Coming off of its first first-place finish in the AL East since 2014 and just its third in the past 40 seasons, Baltimore looks like it is able to compete with the beasts of the East. That is something that has rarely been said in Charm City for several decades.

It is the vision Elias pitched as he assembled a front office in Baltimore. He talked about building a scouting, analytics and player development power that could succeed by building from within.

It wasn’t a tough sell, because he was convincing people who had already bought in. They had worked with him elsewhere.

Elias, vice president of analytics Sig Megdal and assistant GM Eve Rosenbaum all worked together in Houston. Pitching coordinator Chris Holt came from the Astros as well.

VP for scouting and player development Matt Blood and VP for international scouting Koby Perez worked together with Elias—and Megdal—with the Cardinals in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

Elias and his staff have taken ideas from the success they had with other organizations—pretty much everyone in this front office has a ring—and have been able to avoid some of the pitfalls other rebuilds have experienced.

“When you do something a second time, you can kind of sidestep some inefficiencies and mistakes along the way,” Elias said. “So some of those cultural flare-ups that we had in Houston, or just decisions that we made in the draft and ways that we got smarter from it . . . we were able to just kind of sprint to the correct spot with the Orioles.’

The Orioles have a number of executives who came from Houston, but the approach in Baltimore emphasizes unity.

It has not been easy, and no one involved in the rebuild was arrogant enough to say that this turnaround was always expected. But almost universally, front office officials said that the past five years have been a once-in-a-lifetime experience in which a band of brothers and sisters reunited to conquer the most competitive division in baseball.

“We’re comfortable with each other. We’ve worked together in the past,” Rosenbaum said. “We’re not afraid to challenge each other. We will have disagreements, and they can get heated at times, but it’s always filled with respect for each other. 

“I think we can have those conversations because we’re all familiar with each other. And because we all know that we were brought in here for the same purpose.”

Normally when a new GM is brought in, he is asked to figure out how to blend his ideas with those of some of the pre-existing coaching staff and front office officials. It’s often an idea rooted in an understandable desire to show loyalty to long-time employees. It’s also often a way to avoid big expenses, because firing people under contract means paying them not to contribute.

In Baltimore, Elias was given the freedom to start largely from scratch. The blank slate approach meant that the new front office didn’t have to try to convince existing staff to adopt their approaches to analysis, training and development. 

When he was brought in as farm director, Blood’s main task at first was to work as a hiring manager. He scouted job candidates intently, figuring that if he made the right hires, the next steps would be much easier.

“I think one of the reasons why Mike wanted me in this position was the hiring aspect and creating continuity with our processes and the building of our infrastructure,” Blood said. “What we did for the first few years was find people from all corners of the baseball universe who we felt like were good fits. 

“We really looked for people who were humble but very hungry to learn and to help players get better. We found a bunch of people who fit that mold. Once we got that done, we got them all together and we helped get them to understand what it is that as an organization we’re going to value . . .”

Blood estimates that the Orioles have hired more than 65 people in staffing new pitching, hitting and performance departments.

Turnover has been minimal since then. From the day a player is drafted to the time he reaches the majors, the Orioles’ scouting, coaching, analytics and training staff provide a consistent message.

“Every team I’ve worked for, and any person from another team I’ve spoken to has talked about the importance of being on the same page,” Megdal said. “It is extremely difficult to implement that. And I have never seen it implemented as well as it is in Baltimore.”

The players obviously play a large role in Baltimore’s player development success.

Holt remembers putting together a presentation on what standout major league pitches look like for the minor league pitchers during his first spring training with the organization in 2019. He showed the group changeups thrown by Chris Devenski, Jharel Cotton and Trevor Richards and explained why they were so effective.

After the meeting, Grayson Rodriguez, then a 19-year-old prospect coming off his pro debut, made a point of finding Holt.

“He starts to see for the first time . . . ‘Oh, just because I throw a four-seam fastball, it doesn’t matter if my changeup doesn’t look like a four-seam fastball?’ I told him, ‘No, it doesn’t.’ Spin mirroring might be a thing, but it’s not an important thing.

“So two days later, he’s like, ‘Hey Holty, I think I think I figured out that three o’clock changeup thing.’ And so he rips a couple of these changeups off. He just visualized it and figured out his way to do it. And it’s been a huge weapon for him throughout his minor league development, but also now in the big leagues as a platoon-neutralizing pitch.”

Often, hard-throwing high school pitchers don’t learn to throw a quality changeup until well into their pro careers. Rodriguez had one before he ever threw a pitch in Class A. It’s the pitch he used the second most in the majors in 2023. 

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Rodriguez is an example that even if the big league Orioles had hit rock bottom, the farm wasn’t completely barren. The Orioles drafted him 11th overall in 2018. The year before, they selected Hall 21st overall before trading him as the key to the Burnes deal.   

Outfielders Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins II and Anthony Santander—an astute Rule 5 pick in 2016—were already in the organization. So too was Ryan Mountcastle, a first-round pick in 2015.

Given his background, Elias believed he could build a core around inherited players while supplementing with hidden gems.

Elias began his career in baseball as an area scout for the Cardinals. But as he worked with Megdal and Luhnow, he began to blend analytical analysis with his scouting eye. By the time he became the Astros’ scouting director he was blending both approaches.

“He’s an amazingly skilled evaluator. I don’t know of a scout who’s better than him,” Megdal said. “But to be a scouting director or to be a GM, you can’t simply be an evaluator. You have to be a forecaster. You have to be able to synthesize information from disparate sources. 

“And you don’t get that skill by playing baseball. It’s a unique skill. Mike is special in that he has skills as an evaluator and as a forecaster. In 18 years of working together, with draft models and player projection systems, he’s really grown as a forecaster. He’s as knowledgeable with the strengths and weaknesses of the various models as an experienced analyst is.”

Elias was also playing a key role in restarting the practically dormant international department. The Orioles hired Koby Perez away from the Guardians to change that.

At the time, Baltimore was viewed as baseball’s bank for international pool money. When a team needed to add to their bonus pool to sign additional players, they would trade a minor leaguer to Baltimore. The Orioles had no need for international pool money because they were unwilling to spend to sign amateurs in Latin America to any significant bonuses.

Perez was told to shut down the bank.

“From my point of view, I can’t make it any worse,” Perez said. “It was a win-win situation. No matter what happened, it was going to be better than what it was. They just weren’t signing players, so just by signing guys, you’re already winning.”

If Blood was working as a hiring manager for player development, Perez was part hiring manager and part building contractor. He had to spearhead the development of a new 22.5-acre complex that would take the Orioles’ Dominican Republic complex from one of the worst to one of the best.

Perez had been the Guardians’ international scouting director when Cleveland signed Junior Caminero, Brayan Rocchio and George Valera. He worked for the Phillies and Cardinals before that, which is where he first met Elias.

“When I took the job, Mike said, ‘I know you know what you’re doing. Do what you’ve got to do. If you need me, I’m here to help,’” Perez said. “I told him, ‘I will need you to come down. We’ve got to build this brand.’”

Perez hired Mets scout Gerardo Cabrera to become the Orioles’ Latin American supervisor. Cabrera had helped the Mets land Francisco Alvarez, Amed Rosario and many others. Scouting-wise Perez was confident. But on the international market, it would be a slow process.

With the way deals are made on the international market, the 2019 international class was effectively locked up before the Orioles re-entered the market. Even the 2020 class was already looking picked over. But there was a prospect Perez had in mind who was not yet committed. 

Dominican catcher Samuel Basallo had shown arm strength, but in additional looks, Perez and other Orioles scouts noticed he was quickly adding power as well. Perez became convinced Basallo could be the cornerstone to an international class. Baltimore was not the only team involved, but for the first time in a long time, they were in the hunt.

So Perez made the call. He asked Elias to fly down to see Basallo. Elias also liked him. But so did other teams. To finish the deal, Perez asked Elias to come back one more time to show Basallo that the Orioles were serious.

“Mike comes down again, shakes the kid’s hand and tells him, ‘You look good in orange,’ the whole thing. And from that point on (Basallo) and his agent were like, ‘This team is going to treat us well.’”

Basallo now ranks as the No. 10 prospect. He’s the first Orioles international signee to crack the Top 100 since Eduardo Rodriguez in 2014 and Jonathan Schoop in 2012. 

When Elias wasn’t flying to the Dominican Republic, he was bouncing around the country to scout potential draftees. Losing 115 games in 2018 meant that the Orioles held the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft. It was a loaded draft class, but Oregon State’s Adley Rutschman was the clear top talent.

No draft pick, even a No. 1 pick, is a guaranteed success. But Rutschman was as safe a bet as they come. Soon after they signed Rutschman, the Orioles saw signs that he was not only a premium talent, but also the kind of leader who could be a star on a championship team.

But no one player can drive a team to success. Baltimore managed to land yet another star in that same draft when they chose Alabama high school shortstop Gunnar Henderson in the second round.

Later in that same draft, the Orioles selected Joey Ortiz, who was part of the Burnes trade; and Darell Hernaiz, who was later traded to the Athletics for Cole Irvin. 

The Orioles drafted key prospects in both 2020 (Heston Kjerstad, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo) and 2021 (Colton Cowser and Connor Norby) before hitting another home run in 2022 with the selection of Jackson Holliday at No. 1 overall.

Keeping that farm system churning out prospects will be tougher now that the Orioles are picking at the back of the first round, but it will be vital to them staying on top of a division where they know that the Yankees and Red Sox almost always run huge payrolls.

What’s also notable about the Orioles’ draft practices is just how few pitchers they draft with top picks. The top 12 as well as 19 of the 21 draftees to sign for seven figures with Baltimore since 2019 are position players. The Orioles have focused on growing their lineup through elite picks, but they also have demonstrated a confidence that they can identify and develop pitching from less-expected sources.

It has worked. Kyle Bradish was part of a four-player package the Orioles got from the Angels in December 2019 for Dylan Bundy. Few teams thought Bradish could be more than a bullpen arm at that time, but the Orioles helped him develop into their Game 1 starter in the 2023 Division Series.

The Orioles have shown similar skill in building a bullpen. Baltimore traded for Yennier Cano and signed cast-offs like Cionel Perez and Danny Coulombe to round out their relief corps. And while all-star closer Felix Bautista will miss the 2024 season after having Tommy John surgery, his success is the most dramatic of all. 

Baltimore signed Bautista after the Marlins had released him out of the Dominican Summer League in 2014. He spent three more seasons in Rookie ball with the Orioles, despite hitting 100 mph, before finally earning a full-season assignment in 2019. 

After the pandemic, Bautista climbed three levels in 2021 and established himself as a dominating reliever in 2022.

The Orioles’ ability to blend stars with complementary players puts them in a good spot. They seem to be equipped to challenge the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays for years to come. 

Until recently, the Orioles had operated in the middle of the pack in terms of MLB payroll. From 2000 to 2018, Baltimore’s Opening Day payroll was the 15th highest in baseball on average. 

In the five years since Elias arrived, the Orioles’ payroll has never ranked higher than 27th. This year, they will again operate one of the lowest at $88.9 million. That’s not only the lowest in the AL East, behind the ever parsimonious Rays, but also more than $50 million lower than the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll in 2018.

The Orioles today operate as a small-market team, one that largely sat out the free agent market. Reliever Craig Kimbrel’s one-year, $12 million deal was the only significant signing. The addition of Burnes adds more than $15 million to the payroll. Santander is the only other player making eight figures in 2024. 

Burnes, Kimbrel and Santander are all free agents after the season. 

Determining which of their own players to extend and which prospects can assume MLB roster spots will take up a lot of the Orioles’ efforts and payroll over the next few years.

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The Angelos family owned the Orioles for 30 years before announcing the sale of the franchise to a group led by David Rubenstein in February. The transaction could change the team’s financial approach dramatically, but that’s something that won’t be apparent until the changeover is officially approved.

The success of the Orioles in drawing more fans and increasing revenue will help determine whether the franchise will operate as a mid-market team.

“That’s to me one of the more fascinating aspects of this whole Baltimore project is (that) nobody’s really sure what the ceiling is with this market,” Elias said. 

“I think nobody knows what the limit is on the Orioles’ business ops over the next 10 years or so. So I think we’re going to explore all that in real time. We’ll find the right water level in terms of reinvesting in baseball ops, in terms of infrastructure or major league signings.”

The Orioles’ front office knows that postseason success stems from postseason opportunity, year after year. They also know how special it would be to bring a World Series title back to Baltimore. 

The Orioles haven’t won the World Series in 41 years, the sixth-longest drought in baseball. And for Elias and Rosenbaum, there’s a hometown component as well. Elias grew up in Virginia when the Orioles were the only team in the area. Rosenbaum is from Baltimore.

“To bring a championship back to Baltimore would have that personal touch for me . . . It’s the team that my parents and my friends root for,” Rosenbaum said. “There’s so many people in my life who are Orioles fans. There’s just nothing like that.”