NCAA Top 25 Matchups Deliver, Wake Forest’s Questions And More (Off The Bat)
Image credit: Duke RHP Charlie Beilenson (Photo by Brian Westerholt/Four Seam Images)
Conference play began in the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 this weekend, giving us some much-welcomed marquee matchups. And they did not disappoint, especially the weekend’s two biggest series: Duke at Wake Forest and Texas at Texas Tech.
Here are 12 takeaways from around the country on the weekend that was in college baseball.
1. Coming into this weekend’s Tobacco Road showdown between Duke and Wake Forest, the attention was all on the pitching. The Blue Devils ranked second in the nation in team ERA (2.29), the Demon Deacons were 20th (3.51). Both teams have a Preseason All-American leading their rotation and both have high-end bullpens.
So, of course, the series played out much more offensively because you can’t predict baseball. And credit to Duke for finding a way to scrape out a massive series win on the road while going against script. The Blue Devils won Friday’s opener, 8-5, despite ace Jonathan Santucci getting knocked out in the third inning. They bounced back from a 6-3 loss Saturday that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates and won 10-8 in Sunday’s rubber game.
Duke won the series despite its starters giving up 13 runs in just 10.2 innings on the weekend. Its best start came from freshman Kyle Johnson, who on Sunday held Wake to two runs on three hits and two walks in four innings.
The Blue Devils’ bullpen was more than ready to pick up the rotation, however. Over 16.1 innings, it held the Demon Deacons to six runs (3.31 ERA) and did not allow a run in the final three innings of any game. On Friday, Owen Proksch (1.1 IP), Gabriel Nard (2 IP) and Charlie Beilenson (3 IP) combined for 6.1 scoreless innings. Things weren’t as clean Sunday, but James Tallon, Proksch and Beilenson each threw a scoreless inning to end the game, capped by Beilenson striking out three straight hitters with the tying run on base to close out the win.
Duke’s bullpen was one of the best in the country in 2023 and it helped take the Blue Devils to super regionals. This year they again appear to have one of the best bullpens. Beilenson has not allowed a run in 14 innings to start the season and already has seven saves. Nard (0-0, 2.61), a sophomore, has emerged as one of their most trusted arms. Proksch (1-0, 4.05), Fran Oschell III (0-0, 2.45) and Tallon (0-0, 13.50) haven’t started as well but have strong track records.
How far can Duke ride that group this year? We’ll have to wait until June to find out, but the Blue Devils this weekend showed they can lean on their bullpen in big moments.
2. Wake came into the weekend ranked No. 1 but hadn’t really looked the part so far this season. I wondered whether that was because of some real flaws, or if the Demon Deacons had just lacked determination against their subpar non-conference opponents and they’d find that next gear against a ranked conference foe like Duke.
The answer seems to be that Wake is dealing with some flaws. Most of them aren’t major and will probably get ironed out in time. It’s still just March. All-American first baseman Nick Kurtz (.220/.466/.380, 2 HR) will probably break out sooner than later. All-American lefthander Josh Hartle (3-1, 4.22) will have better days than he did Friday. We’re still talking about a team that’s 12-3 that’s averaging 8.67 runs per game with a 3.75 team ERA.
But Wake needs its stars to be stars. Righthander Chase Burns (6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 14 K) and outfielder Seaver King (5-for-14, 3 R, HR) did their parts, but on a weekend when Kurtz went 0-for-10 with six walks and Hartle (3.2 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 4 K) and righthander Michael Massey (2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K) struggled, it’s going to be hard for Wake. The roster is relatively top heavy and while solid supporting players like Adam Tellier (.362/.500/.793, 6 HR) and Jack Winnay (.367/.458/.796, 6 HR) have emerged, it’s still going to be hard when the stars don’t deliver.
I’m not truly concerned about Wake yet. But it needs to find some answers quickly. This week it travels to No. 22 Coastal Carolina on Tuesday and then No. 15 Virginia on the weekend. There are no easy weekends in ACC play to sort this out.
3. Wake’s loss opened a debate for No. 1 for the first time this season and there were a half dozen teams that could make a claim for the spot. Arkansas (13-2), Duke, LSU (14-2), Oregon State (15-1), Tennessee (16-1) and Texas A&M (16-0) have all gotten off to strong starts and own some premium wins. If you want to make the case for any of those teams, I’ll listen.
We settled on Arkansas. The Razorbacks haven’t been tested since leaving Globe Life Field on the second weekend of the season, but they are 13-2 overall and have won nine straight. Their win against Oregon State in Arlington, Texas, is one of the best this season. They have a 2.79 team ERA and arguably the best rotation in the country in lefthander Hagen Smith (2-0, 2.12), righthander Brady Tygart (3-0, 0.90) and lefthander Mason Molina (2-0, 3.57).
If you prefer undefeated A&M or Duke, which just beat No. 1 on the road, I get it. But there’s no clear answer at the top right now, which I think makes for a lot of fun.
4. Texas this weekend got a much-needed and hard-fought series win in Lubbock. The Longhorns opened the series with a cathartic, 22-8 rout Friday night, snapping a tough four-game losing streak. Texas Tech bounced back with a 7-2 win Saturday to even the series and was up early in Sunday’s rubber game. But Texas (9-6, 2-1) came back for a 9-7, series-clinching victory to open Big 12 play.
The Longhorns came into the weekend on a four-game skid, having been swept at the Astros Foundation Classic and then beaten at home Tuesday by archrival Texas A&M. Halting that bad momentum with a series win in a brutally difficult place to play and against another rival in Texas Tech has the potential to be season-altering.
Coach David Pierce was most pleased with the heart his team showed. And having gotten past this test, Texas now gets 10 straight home games, eight of which are against teams that currently have losing records. It’s a stretch where the Longhorns need to catch their breath and make whatever adjustments they need to before a challenging second half.
5. Texas Tech had worked its way up to No. 14 in the Top 25 a week ago. But it was relatively unproven. It picked up nice wins against Nebraska and Oregon on opening weekend but also lost to Tennessee and Oregon State. The rest of its slate was unremarkable and that made this weekend’s series against Texas that much more interesting.
Texas is a good team and there’s no shame in losing a series to the Longhorns and it was a tough weekend to pitch in Lubbock. But Tech has to be concerned about its pitching after this weekend. Righthander Kyle Robinson (3.2 IP, 11 H, 11 R, 3 BB, 3 K) got shelled Friday and Tech couldn’t find the right answers in the middle innings Sunday. Freshman Mac Heuer (6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K) turned in a quality start Saturday and Ryan Free and Josh Sanders followed with three scoreless innings.
The makings of a solid pitching staff are there, but Tech (11-4, 1-2) has a 6.02 team ERA. It’s got to find some answers as conference play continues.
6. Kansas produced the weekend’s most surprising result, as it not only handed TCU its first loss of the season but won the series. The Jayhawks (9-5, 2-1) won a series against a top-five opponent for the first time since 2010 and started conference play with a series win for the first time since 2014.
Kansas won Friday’s opener, 3-1, as Reese Dutton, Tegan Cain and Hunter Craton combined to hold TCU to four hits. It clinched the series with an 8-4 win Saturday, again holding the Horned Frogs to just four hits. Kansas held a 4-1 lead after five innings in Sunday’s finale, but the TCU offense finally came alive and scored 12 runs in the final four innings for a 13-4 win.
While Kansas missed out on what would have been a sensational sweep, it still walks away with a critical series win. The Jayhawks are trying to make a jump in coach Dan Fitzgerald’s second year with the program and make a run at their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014. This is the kind of result that could be a springboard toward those goals, especially if TCU goes on to win the Big 12, as it was picked to do in the preseason.
7. I’m of two minds about the series loss for TCU (14-2, 1-2). On the one hand, Kansas is likely not a Big 12 bottom feeder this year (and not just because the conference expanded) and winning on the road is difficult. The Horned Frogs’ offense, which is hitting .311/.414/.477, is rarely going to be held to four hits in back-to-back games. On the other hand, TCU is seemingly insistent on getting itself in tough situations and it just flopped in its first road test.
TCU has gotten just two quality starts this year and only five times in 16 games has its starter gone more than five innings. The Horned Frogs’ bullpen is a strength, but there’s a lot of pressure being put on it.
TCU still looks very clearly like the best team in the Big 12, but that 13-0 start did mask some issues. The Frogs have a big couple weeks coming up with Oklahoma (9-5, 3-0), Oklahoma State (10-6) and Houston (11-4, 3-0) in consecutive weeks.
8. There are two remaining undefeated teams in the country, Florida State (14-0) and Texas A&M (16-0). The Seminoles dispatched New Orleans, outscoring the Privateers 36-7 on the weekend. The Aggies, after throwing consecutive shutouts to open their series against Rhode Island, had to work hard Sunday to remain undefeated with a 12-11 victory in 10 innings. They trailed 11-7 at the seventh inning stretch and needed two runs in the bottom of the ninth to force extra innings before walking it off in the 10th.
Both Florida State and A&M face challenging games Tuesday before opening conference play. The Seminoles visit No. 10 Florida (10-5) before hosting Notre Dame (9-5), while A&M hosts Sam Houston State (11-5) before travelling to Florida.
9. Florida had another up-and-down week. The Gators lost Wednesday at home to UCF, 9-6, and then worked hard for a series win against Saint Mary’s (9-6). They won Friday’s opener, 12-11, in 10 innings and lost Saturday, 9-7. They rolled to a 10-0 win in eight innings in Sunday’s series finale, led by All-American Jac Caglianone, who threw six hitless innings.
This is Florida’s worst start to the season since 2019, when it also got off to a 10-5 start. I’m not going to draw any comparisons between those two teams, but I will note that those Gators went 34-26, 13-17 and went 1-2 in the Lubbock Regional.
Florida’s slow start (by its absurdly high standards) comes back to pitching. It has a 5.43 team ERA and aside from Caglianone (2-0, 1.80) and reliever Ryan Slater (1-0, 1.89), no one has truly impressed. Some of that, you figure will work itself out. Closer Brandon Neely (0-0, 9.00, 0 SV) earned all-SEC honors a season ago. Starters Cade Fisher (1-1, 7.56) and Liam Peterson (1-1, 5.06) are new to their roles but don’t lack for talent. But the Gators need those guys to figure it out soon and probably for some others to step up.
After the series, coach Kevin O’Sullivan said he would consider shuffling the rotation.
“Not necessarily changing the names, but maybe moving some things around,” he said. “Maybe that’ll be a spark plug for us.”
Caglianone moving to Fridays would be interesting. In his last two games, he’s struck out 20 batters in 12 scoreless innings. But he’s also Florida’s best hitter, batting .429/.520/.683 with five home runs. With any two-way player, coaches have to decide when the right time is to deploy them on the mound. Pitching on Friday would mean Caglianone would be fresher when he pitches (a scary thought considering what he’s doing already), but it might also mean he isn’t as effective at the plate the next two days.
Florida might need him to lead the rotation. Its lineup is probably deep enough to carry a slightly diminished version of Caglianone’s bat, especially if a move to the front of the rotation put the pitching staff in a better position. Further complicating things, however, is that Caglianone threw 98 pitches Sunday. Could he be moved up two days after that workload and, if not, do you want him pitching on Saturday, arguably the worst day for a two-way player to pitch?
There aren’t any easy answers for Florida, but it’s also the kind of problem a lot of coaches around the country would love to be dealing with.
10. A week ago, I was pretty critical of Miami after it lost its rivalry series to Florida. But the Hurricanes (9-6) bounced back this week to open ACC play with a series win against Virginia. They won the opener, 6-5, and then clinched the series with a wild, 16-12 victory Saturday. Miami scored 13 runs in the seventh and eighth innings to erase a 12-3 deficit. The Hurricanes had a shot at a sweep Sunday and led 11-10 after the seventh inning, but the Cavaliers mounted a comeback of their own for a 14-11 victory.
Freshman third baseman Daniel Cuvet is hitting an unbelievable .500/.576/1.036 with eight home runs and sophomore first baseman Jason Torres is right behind him at .421/.485/.860 with seven home runs. With them leading the lineup, Miami will be a tough team to shut down this season.
11. Southern Miss (10-6) claimed another solid series win, going on the road to knock off Louisiana Tech (13-3). The Golden Eagles won the first two games of the series and, perhaps most importantly, had a breakout offensive series, scoring 31 runs. They came into the weekend averaging just 5.69 runs per game and were facing a Bulldogs pitching staff that ranked fourth in the nation in team ERA (2.48).
There were some clear positives on the weekend for Southern Miss. But it also fell to 1-3 on the season in series finales and, after losing to Mississippi State on Tuesday in Pearl, Miss., it’s 2-2 in midweek games. The top end of the Golden Eagles’ pitching staff is plenty good. Niko Mazza (3-0, 1.93) and Billy Oldham (3-0, 3.00) provide a strong 1-2 punch in the rotation, and they have a strong bullpen core, led by Colby Allen (1-0, 2.00, 2 SV). But for Southern Miss to take the next step, it will either have to find a few more arms or build on this weekend’s offensive momentum.
12. California this week bounced back from a disappointing 0-2 showing in last weekend’s Las Vegas Classic. The Golden Bears (11-3, 3-0) went 4-0, beating archrival Stanford on Tuesday and then sweeping UCLA to open Pac-12 play. They are off to their best start since 2016, when they opened 15-3.
I last week wrote about the wide-open race for challengers to Oregon State in the Pac-12. Cal looks like it’s ready to take on that mantle.
Eight for Omaha
Arkansas, Duke, LSU, Oregon State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, TCU, Wake Forest
It’s March 11 and I’m hesitant to be too reactionary in my Eight for Omaha picks. So, you’ll still find TCU and Wake Forest here, despite them not looking particularly good in series losses this weekend. I’m not that concerned with TCU losing a road series. The Horned Frogs remain my Big 12 favorite and since the Big 12 has sent a team to Omaha for nine straight seasons, I’m keeping them here. Wake, as I detailed above, is not without flaw, but I believe it’ll figure it out.
There are two changes to the field, however. Duke and Texas A&M join, as Florida and Virginia fall out. Right now, I just have too many questions about the Gators and Cavaliers on the mound. It’s maybe unfair to lump them together as Florida’s pitching staff is in much better shape than Virginia’s, but neither has pitched at the level they are accustomed to. The Aggies have been impressive so far but will face their biggest test to date this weekend at Florida. I struggled to pick between Duke and Clemson, but I imagine that decision will get easier following their series this weekend in Durham.
Looking Ahead
SEC play begins with some big series. Conference play opens this weekend in the SEC and nearly every series is a notable one. There are three Top-25 matchups: No. 5 Texas A&M at No. 10 Florida, No. 6 Tennessee at No. 18 Alabama and No. 17 Auburn at No. 8 Vanderbilt. The highlight is probably the Aggies (16-0) travelling to take on the Gators (10-5) for what will be their biggest test yet this season. But don’t look past the Volunteers (16-1) visiting the Crimson Tide (15-1), in the most significant edition of that rivalry in more than a decade.
No. 9 Clemson travels to No. 3 Duke for a top-10 showdown. The Blue Devils (13-2, 2-1) are coming off their takedown of Wake Forest and won’t get any chance for a breather with the Tigers (13-1) coming to Durham. It’s the conference opener for Clemson, which won its final 14 ACC games last season (including the conference tournament). This series is for early season ACC supremacy.
Cal travels to Oregon. The Golden Bears (11-3, 3-0) and Ducks (11-4, 2-1) look like the two most likely challengers to Oregon State in the Pac-12. They met this weekend for a key early season series and both teams are coming off solid series wins to open conference play. Cal swept UCLA at home, while Oregon won a series at Arizona State. This weekend provides both teams with a key opportunity to prove themselves.
