Dynasty Third Base Targets, Sleepers and Fades For 2024
Image credit: (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins via Getty Images)
Our New Year’s resolution for this year is to compete in our dynasty leagues, and to help us ring in the championship bells, we released our top 50 dynasty third basemen this week.
As with the other positions, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White reveal who they’re targeting, who they think are sleepers, and which old acquaintances should be forgotten at the hot corner. They identify players who they think will meet or exceed their current fantasy value; those whose starting value is outside the top tier at the position but who have a good chance of jumping substantially in value; and those players who are potentially at the peak of their dynasty value.
You can find all of positional rankings, target/sleeper/fades lists, deep dives, articles about strategy and all things fantasy in BA’s Fantasy Baseball 2024 HQ here.
Third Basemen To Target
Junior Caminero, Rays
There isn’t much risk identifying a touted prospect as a target, but Caminero is worth investing in without much hesitation because he should meet his lofty expectations. You (should) already know about the prodigious power. Caminero had the highest 90th percentile exit velocity in Double-A and was five years younger than the average age for the level, turning 20 years old in July. His power plays to all fields. His sole home run in the majors went to right center field and he hit a double off a Tanner Houck slider at Fenway Park that hit the spot on the Green Monster that connects to the center field wall. But the Rays’ No. 1 prospect has more than just tremendous bat speed. He also has essentially average contact rates, in-zone contact rates, and chase rates as (again) one of the youngest hitters in the upper levels. I have him as a 30-home run bat — and Steamer and ZiPS essentially do too. Being that young and having multiple projection systems aligning in their endorsement of him despite only 36 major league plate appearances, makes him a high-confidence dynasty target.
— Dylan White
Royce Lewis, Twins
Health remains a nagging question for Lewis until he plays a full season. His career spans only 280 plate appearances due to a litany of injuries over the last three years, but the former No. 1 draft pick has 17 home runs, six stolen bases, a .307 batting average, and a 153 wRC+. Despite the scarce major league experience, Steamer still projects him to hit 27 home runs and steal 13 bases with a wRC+ that is 25% better than the average major league hitter. He’ll still only be 24 years old when the season begins, yet carries himself with the confidence of a veteran. We expect him to be a fantasy (and dynasty) monster.
— Dylan White
Noelvi Marte, Reds
We first must acknowledge the risk with Marte as a top target. He debuted at 21 years old and has only 35 games worth of major league experience. The Reds have multiple potential options at third base in Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. While both could cut into Marte’s playing time potential in the short term, Marte is clearly the superior talent in the long run. For starters, Marte’s bat-to-ball skills are well above-average, and his tool grades held true in his short major league sample running a 88.5% zone contact rate. Marte limits his strikeouts and has a good balance of aggression and patience. His exit velocity average (91.3 mph) and max (115.6 mph) hint at his untapped power potential. Marte will need to improve on his 52.8% ground ball rate to optimize his power potential. However, Marte’s combination of advanced hitting ability and power upside make him an excellent long-term target in dynasty.
— Geoff Pontes
Isaac Paredes, Rays
In Paredes’ fourth major league season — and second with the Rays — the infielder broke out in a big way. Paredes hit 31 home runs in 2023 while hitting .250/.352/.488 over 143 games. While Paredes’ home run total outperformed his raw power numbers in 2023, there’s certainly reasons to expect 25 or more home run totals going forward. What Paredes lacks in raw power he makes up for with elite barrel control. Optimizing contact is Paredes’ greatest asset, as he shows the ability to backspin flyballs consistently. Despite a fly ball-heavy batted ball profile, Paredes is a higher floor batting average and OBP play due to his advanced plate skills.
— Geoff Pontes
Third Basemen Sleepers
Coby Mayo, Orioles
He might not be a sleeper to Baseball America readers considering he’s the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect with a BA Grade/Risk of 55/High, but Mayo has the opportunity to jump into the top 10 for third basemen by 2025 even though he hasn’t debuted yet in the major leagues. RoboScout had Mayo as the top hitter in Double-A, ahead of Jackson Holliday, Junior Caminero, and Jackson Chourio, with a barrel rate over 20%, a slugging percentage over .600, and a 178 wRC+ in his age-21 season. This implies that in his age-27 season in the major leagues, he should have a wRC+ over 120 with 25+ home runs. With his upper-level walk rates of around 15%, Mayo has even more value in leagues that value OBP. He’s expected to be one of the core hitters on an ascendant Orioles hitting club for years to come.
— Dylan White
Brett Baty, Mets
Baty will likely benefit from Ronny Mauricio’s unfortunate winter ball ACL injury. The No. 12 overall pick in 2019, Baty ranked as the Mets’ No. 3 prospect entering 2023 with 60-grade power and a 55-grade hit tool. He promptly hit .400/.500/.886 with five home runs in the first two weeks of the Triple-A season en route to being called up the parent club. But Baty’s rookie season did not go as well as he hoped. He struggled, especially against non-fastballs, posting a 50.2% ground ball rate. Projections though — including RoboScout — expect the 24-year-old to be a .250/.320 hitter with 20 homers in 2024, which should grow into 25 home runs, or even 30 at peak. If he takes the full-time starting job and meets the projection systems’ offensive expectations, his value heading into 2025 will be sky high.
— Dylan White
Curtis Mead, Rays
Mead’s wrist injury followed by limited playing time during his major league debut has taken some of the shine off for many. In reality, Mead is still just 23 years old and offers one of the best combinations of contact and power among prospect-eligible players. In the minors leagues in 2023, Mead ran a 87.3% contact rate with a 104.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. The biggest question in Mead’s profile is his defensive home and his throwing has been a point of contention. The defensive questions will work themselves out, as Mead’s hitting ability has potential for plus hit and power tools at peak.
— Geoff Pontes
Zach Dezenzo, Astros
With Alex Bregman entering the final season of his contract, the Astros could look internally to fill the void left by the franchise legend. Dezenzo is one internal option with a green arrow up entering 2024. A classic Astros late-round steal, Dezenzo hit .304/.383/.531 with 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases across High-A and Double-A in 2023. His profile is driven by his plus-plus raw power and ability to drive the ball out to any part of the field. Dezenzo’s 107.9 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was in the top 99th percentile among minor league hitters. Theres some swing and miss in Dezenzo’s game, but he balances approach, contact and plus-plus power well.
— Geoff Pontes
Third Basemen To Fade
Alec Bohm, Phillies
For my positional fades, my approach has been to highlight some players who are still valuable dynasty contributors, but whose perceived value is potentially higher than their “actual” value or is in jeopardy of declining in the near future. On the face of it, Alec Bohm therefore seems like an odd choice considering he’s only entering his prime at age 27, hits in the middle of the order of a championship contender and is a career .276 hitter in the majors. Bohm has a keen eye and great contact ability, leading to sub-20% strikeout rates. All of this appropriately has the 2018 first-round pick valued in the top 20 for third basemen on most dynasty lists. There are concerns, though. First, Bohm does not walk much, lowering his value in OBP leagues. Second, his power is only in the 18 to 22-home run range. Third, because he does not provide much defensive value (or base running value) — he hasn’t put up a 1.5-WAR season in his career, despite 600+ plate appearances in the last two seasons — he may find himself moved down on the defensive spectrum in real life, where his bat may not play up enough compared to other sluggers.
— Dylan White
Alex Bregman, Astros
The left field Crawford Boxes at Houston’s Minute Maid Park have long been a saving grace for Bregman’s home run totals. But Bregman’s aforementioned contract status — and the idea he could be with a new team in 2025 — should give dynasty managers pause heading into 2024. Over the last two seasons, Bregman has benefited from good health and racked up counting stats, as his run and RBIs totals have buoyed his fantasy value. His slash line of .261/.364/.447 doesn’t exactly inspire confidence as he enters his age-30 season. A good year from Bregman in a contract year shouldn’t come as surprise, but his value for 2025 and beyond is a bigger question mark.
— Geoff Pontes
