To Win A World Series, Teams Almost Always Have To Spend
Image credit: Shohei Ohtani (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
In the span of two weeks, the Dodgers awarded more than $1 billion to just two players by signing Shohei Ohtani (10 years, $700 million) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325 million) in free agency.
The $70 million average annual value of Ohtani’s deal—albeit heavily deferred—is larger than the entire opening day payrolls of the A’s and Orioles last season, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
Yamamoto’s contract, meanwhile, is the largest ever for a starting pitcher despite the fact he has yet to throw a pitch in MLB. His average annual salary of approximately $27.08 million is more than Brewers aces Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta made combined last year (just under $24.55 million).
Naturally, such astronomical expenditures have led to calls for a salary cap to be instituted in MLB to ensure competitive equity. It’s important to note, however, that a salary cap does not guarantee a more level playing field.
With no salary cap, MLB has had 16 different World Series champions since 2000. That’s more teams that have won a title in that time than the NBA (11), NFL (13) or NHL (13), all of which have salary caps. What’s more, every MLB team made at least one playoff appearance in the last 10 seasons. The same cannot be said in the NFL or NHL despite both leagues having larger playoff fields.
At the same time, however, It would be a mistake to suggest spending doesn’t matter. When it comes to winning a World Series, the teams that win are almost always among baseball’s biggest spenders.
Some relevant facts:
- In the wild card era (1995-present), 26 of the 29 teams to win a World Series ranked in the top half of MLB in opening day payroll.
- In the same time frame, 20 of the 29 World Series champions ranked in the top 10 in opening day pay payroll.
- Only three World Series champions—the 2017 Astros, 2015 Royals and 2003 Marlins—ranked in the bottom half of MLB in opening day payroll. The 2017 Astros (Justin Verlander) and 2015 Royals (Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist) both made midseason trades that put them into the top half of payroll by the end of the season.
- Only one team, the 2003 Marlins, won a World Series after ranking in the bottom 10 in opening day payroll.
The trend extends beyond the wild card era. The 1992 and 1993 Blue Jays ranked first and third in opening day payroll, respectively, en route to winning back-to-back World Series.
There are, of course, many teams that have spent enormous sums of money only to fall flat. Just last year, the three highest-spending teams—the Mets, Yankees and Padres—all missed the playoffs.
But in the postseason, the low-payroll darlings also habitually fall flat. The A’s reached the playoffs 11 times in 20 years and advanced past the Division Series just once. The Brewers have reached the playoffs five times in the last six years and have won just one playoff round. Since their Cinderella run to the 2008 World Series, the Rays have reached the playoffs eight times in 14 seasons and advanced past the first round just once—the 2020 postseason, when the Covid-altered playoff format played perfectly into their strengths.
For three decades, it’s been shown time and again that it requires large sums of money to amass both the stars and depth needed to win a World Series. The Dodgers know and recognize this, and are once again putting themselves in the strongest position possible to bring a championship to Chavez Ravine.
Spending money doesn’t guarantee a championship, but teams that win championships almost always spend.
WORLD SERIES CHAMPION OPENING DAY PAYROLLS
| Year | Team | Opening Day Payroll |
| 2023 | Rangers | 9th |
| 2022 | Astros | 10th |
| 2021 | Braves | 14th |
| 2020 | Dodgers | 2nd |
| 2019 | Nationals | 4th |
| 2018 | Red Sox | 1st |
| 2017 | Astros | 17th |
| 2016 | Cubs | 6th |
| 2015 | Royals | 17th |
| 2014 | Giants | 7th |
| 2013 | Red Sox | 4th |
| 2012 | Giants | 6th |
| 2011 | Cardinals | 10th |
| 2010 | Giants | 11th |
| 2009 | Yankees | 1st |
| 2008 | Phillies | 13th |
| 2007 | Red Sox | 2nd |
| 2006 | Cardinals | 11th |
| 2005 | White Sox | 13th |
| 2004 | Red Sox | 2nd |
| 2003 | Marlins | 25th |
| 2002 | Angels | 15th |
| 2001 | D-backs | 8th |
| 2000 | Yankees | 1st |
| 1999 | Yankees | 1st |
| 1998 | Yankees | 2nd |
| 1997 | Marlins | 5th |
| 1996 | Yankees | 1st |
| 1995 | Braves | 4th |
| 1994 | No World Series | |
| 1993 | Blue Jays | 3rd |
| 1992 | Blue Jays | 1st |
