Drew Miller Stats & Scouting Report

IP	279
ERA	5.194
WHIP	1.466
BB/9	3.226
SO/9	7.387

Full name Andrew James Miller
Born 02/24/1986 in Ada, OK
Profile Ht.: 6'4" / Wt.: 190 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Seminole State College (OK)
Drafted in the 37th round (1,118th overall) by the San Diego Padres in 2005.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Ranked No. 5 on this list a year ago, Miller slid dramatically because of poor performance and a questionable approach. He signed for $300,000 in May 2006 as a draft-and-follow after posting dominant strikeout totals in junior college, but he hasn't consistently pitched up to his impressive raw stuff as a pro. He posted a 4.69 ERA in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League in 2007, and ranked near the bottom in ERA (6.10) and homers allowed (19) in the California League last season. If there was a silver lining, it was that he stayed healthy and made 26 starts after missing time with shoulder and oblique soreness the year before. Miller has a low-90s heater that touches 94 mph and a plus curveball, which should allow him to succeed. He's trying to find feel for a changeup. Miller's command grades as below-average, and scouts question his composure and competitiveness, as he shows an unwillingness to work inside. Typically, it took batters only a few innings to decode the pattern. With his arm strength, it's impossible to completely write off Miller, who will get another chance to conquer high Class A in 2009.
Miller posted dominant strikeout totals in junior college, but struggled to a 4.29 ERA in his sophomore year. The Padres gave him early fourth-round money ($300,000) to sign as a draft-and-follow in 2006. Miller was a model of inconsistency in low Class A last year, averaging more than a strikeout per inning but also posting a 5.28 ERA in the second half while missing time with shoulder soreness and a strained oblique. Miller's athleticism, arm strength and three-pitch mix give him a ceiling to rival that of Matt Latos, but he's only beginning to scratch the surface of his abilities. He pitches at 90-94 with his fastball, and his plus curveball gives him a second swing-and-miss pitch at his disposal. His smooth delivery allows him to repeat his mechanics and throw strikes, and his body still has room for projection. If the Padres didn't make Miller throw his changeup, he probably wouldn't use it, though it's a major league-average pitch at times. In fact, the pitch was the culprit on many of the 12 homers he surrendered in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. Even with his potent fastball-curveball combo, he can't always put hitters away because he doesn't locate his pitches well in the strike zone. He sometimes loses his composure when he gets into jams. Added strength and durability would benefit Miller in 2008, when he'll navigate the pitcher's rite of passage that is the California League. Continued improvement and trust in his changeup could propel Miller to front-of-the-rotation status, but a No. 3 profile is more likely.
Decker, the same scout who signed since-traded catcher George Kottaras as a draft-and-follow in 2003, also signed Miller and Aaron Breit as draft-and-follows last spring. Miller posted dominant strikeout totals in junior college but struggled to a 4.29 ERA in his sophomore year at Seminole State (Okla.) Junior College. The Padres gave him early fourth-round money ($300,000) to sign. Miller offers athleticism and one of the best arms in the system. He generates easy low-90s velocity, topping out at 96 mph. He's just starting to scratch the surface of his ability, though, and he could develop more velocity as he matures. Miller's secondary stuff is inconsistent. He struggles to throw his slider and curveball for strikes because he lacks confidence in either pitch, so the Padres tried to get him to focus on perfecting just one of his breaking balls. His changeup is a work in progress, and he often showed more command of the pitch than his slider. Miller sometimes rushes his delivery and needs to develop a more compact motion, as he tends to stay upright. Miller profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter in the big leagues, but he's a long way off. The potential is there for four pitches, but Miller will need time to harness his potential. He'll probably begin this season in low Class A.

Minor League Top Prospects

Miller was an enigma. He showed the top three-pitch mix in the league when he was at his best, such as an April 24 outing in which he threw seven no-hit innings and struck out 11 against Quad Cities. But he went on the disabled list for six weeks with shoulder soreness after his next start, was inconsistent upon his return and got shelled to the tune of a 7.45 ERA in August. One scout rated Miller's curveball as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and another graded his changeup as a 60-65. His fastball is also a plus pitch, sitting in the low 90s and touching 95. He's athletic and has a smooth delivery, which allows him to strikes. So why wasn't Miller more successful? Too often, his stuff faded by the fifth inning and he lost his composure when he got in jams. He has good control but he needs to do a better job of locating his pitches within the strike zone.