Lucas Giolito

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Chicago White Sox #2 prospect in 2017
  Giolito has shown incredible promise since his high school days, when he was considered the top prep pitcher in the 2012 draft class until he sprained his ulnar collateral ligament and was shut down early that March. After being drafted by the Nationals 16th overall he had Tommy John surgery later that summer. Washington traded him to the White Sox--along with righthanders Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning--for Adam Eaton at the 2016 Winter Meetings. Giolito made his long-anticipated major league debut in July 2016, completing a closely watched journey through the minors. While he stumbled in Washington, his star remains bright. Giolito has three above-average offerings and an extra-large frame that allows him to throw from a steep downhill angle. He has touched 100 mph in the past, but his fastball has not typically shown that kind of velocity when he is pitching on a regular schedule. He topped out at 96 mph with his fastball in the major leagues, and sat around 94 mph. He still has a powerful 12-to-6 curveball that can be a plus pitch. His changeup has good sinking action and is effective against lefthanded hitters. Most concerning about Giolito's 2016 performance was his control. After averaging 2.7 walks per nine innings in his first two years of full-season ball, he saw his walk rate spike in 2016, particularly in the big leagues where he averaged 5.1 walks per nine. Giolito often fell behind in the count and will need to get back to consistently throwing quality strikes to get big league hitters out. While Giolito's big league debut was disappointing, he still has incredible upside. He will pitch most of 2017 as a 22-year-old and still has the potential to develop into a front-of-the-rotation starter. He likely will open the season at Triple-A Charlotte.
• 
  Ranked Washington Nationals #1 prospect in 2016
  Giolito's star has only grown brighter as he's gotten further removed from his 2012 Tommy John surgery, and likely will shine brighter than his actress mother, Lindsay Frost, and father Rick, who both have Hollywood credentials. Giolito started the Futures Game in July, throwing two scoreless innings for the U.S. team, and has established himself as one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. Giolito has long shown that kind of promise, dating back to his high school days. He was considered the top prep pitcher in the 2012 draft class until he sprained his ulnar collateral ligament and was shut down early that March. The Nationals took advantage of the slide in his draft stock, selecting him 16th overall and signing him for $2,925,000. He had Tommy John surgery later that summer, and the Nationals have handled him carefully since he returned to the mound in 2013. They limited him to about 100 innings in 2014 by having him skip the occasional start and shutting him down in August. In 2015, they held him back in extended spring training to delay the start to his season and manage his workload. He excelled once he got going, pitching his way to Double-A Harrisburg and finishing the season with 131 strikeouts in 117 innings, both career highs. Armed with three above-average offerings capable of generating swings and misses and an extralarge frame that allows him to throw from a steep downhill angle, Giolito is overpowering at his best. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s and has touched 100 mph. The velocity and angle from which he throws earn his fastball top-of-the-scale grades. His 12-to-6 curveball is a powerful offering with sharp bite and grades nearly as well as his fastball. Giolito also has made strides with his changeup, which has good sinking action. He has turned it into a true weapon against lefthanded hitters. He even produced reverse platoon splits in 2015, holding lefthanders to a .587 OPS, compared with .718 for righthanders. Giolito does a good job of repeating his sound delivery, and he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes. Like any young power pitcher, he still has room to further improve his command, particularly with his secondary pitches. He's always done a good job of throwing strikes, though he did find Double-A hitters less willing to chase his stuff out of the zone. He is also working on some of the finer points that will prepare him for the major leagues, such as holding runners, fielding his position and learning to hit. He worked on all those during an impressive instructional league stint. Giolito is an elite talent with the stuff, size and pitching acumen to develop into an ace. Having reached Double-A to finish the 2015 season, he is closing in on the big leagues and has the stuff to pitch there. But the Nationals have shown great patience with their prized pitching prospect and likely will continue to proceed cautiously because Giolito still is just 21 and has made just eight starts above Class A. He is advanced enough to reach Washington as early as the 2016 season but should begin the year back in Double-A. His stuff and feel for the strike zone give him the ceiling of a No. 1 starter.
• 
  Ranked Washington Nationals #1 prospect in 2015
  In his full-season return from his Tommy John surgery in 2014, Giolito showed off the electrifying stuff and innate feel for pitching that had made him one of the most celebrated prep pitching prospects in recent memory heading into the spring of 2012. The son of Hollywood actors Lindsay Frost and Rick Giolito, Lucas slipped in the draft because of his elbow injury and his strong commitment to UCLA, and the Nationals took advantage by selecting him 16th overall and signing him for $2,925,000. That investment looks wise two years later, now that Giolito has established himself as one of baseball's best prospects. After pitching 37 innings in his return from surgery in 2013, he headed into 2014 healthy and confident, and he was consistent from the start of the season until the end. The Nationals had him skip a start here or there at low Class A Hagerstown and shut him down in mid-August in order to keep him around 100 innings, but they were thrilled with his developmental season. Giolito's extra-large frame helps him generate steep downhill angle on his overpowering fastball, which ranges from 92-98 mph and sits comfortably in the mid-90s. He has touched 100 mph a handful of times over the last two years, and his fastball projects as a true 80 pitch on the 20-80 scale because of its velocity, its angle and his ability to locate it. Like any 20-year-old, Giolito has not mastered his fastball command, but he excels at throwing it for strikes, and his sound delivery and arm action suggest he should have at least average command of it, to go along with above-average control. He sometimes lands a bit stiff on his front leg, which can inhibit his ability to locate at the bottom of the zone, but his command improved as the season progressed. Giolito can throw all three of his pitches for strikes in any count, and he is learning how to set up hitters and put them away. His downer curveball can be devastating, a 12-to-6 hammer with uncommon power and sharp bite, and it should be a plus-plus pitch as he learns to repeat it more consistently. He dominated righthanders in 2014, holding them to a .175 average and .251 slugging percentage. The Nationals got Giolito to focus on developing his changeup in the second half of the 2014 season, and he gained great confidence in the pitch against lefthanded hitters. It has good sinking action, and he can throw it for strikes or use it as a swing-and-miss pitch, making it another potential plus offering. Giolito also has a knack for holding baserunners and fields his position well for his size. The Nationals rave about his maturity, humility, competitiveness and diligent work habits. With a rare combination of stuff, size, feel for pitching and makeup, Giolito has superstar potential. He'll still be just 20 years old at the start of 2015, so the Nationals won't rush him, but he should be ready to increase his workload at high Class A Potomac and could reach Double-A Harrisburg by the second half. Giolito is advanced enough to push for a big league job by 2016.
• 
  Ranked Washington Nationals #1 prospect in 2014
  After establishing himself as a big-name prep prospect years ago, Giolito dazzled in the fall and winter of his senior year at Harvard-Westlake High, prompting some scouts to suggest he had a chance to be the best high school righthander in draft history. He regularly ran his fastball up to 99 mph that January and February, but he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in early March, ending his season and transforming him into a draft wild card. The son of Hollywood actors Lindsay Frost and Rick Giolito, Lucas made it clear a hefty bonus would be required to sign him away from a UCLA commitment. The price tag, coupled with the injury, caused Giolito to fall to the Nationals at No. 16, and they signed him for $2,925,000, exceeding his assigned pick value by $800,000. He made one pro appearance in 2012 before having Tommy John surgery on Aug. 31, but he returned to game action about 10 months later in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, where his stuff was as electric as ever. He continued dominating in three August outings in the short-season New York-Penn League. The first three pitches out of Giolito's hand in his 2013 GCL debut were 100 mph fastballs. His fastball routinely ranges from 93-100 with exceptional downhill angle, and he learned by the end of the summer that he was more comfortable and had better command when he sat at 95-97, rather than reaching back for triple digits all the time. Between his velocity and his angle, Giolito's fastball rates as a true 80 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he does it with minimal effort. He also throws a 12-to-6 power curveball in the 84-86 range that Nationals pitching coordinator Spin Williams has called one of the best curves he's ever seen when Giolito throws a good one. It has late bite and excellent depth, projecting as a plus-plus pitch with a chance to be a second 80 offering. Giolito is still learning to control his 6-foot-6 body, and his delivery is not always in sync. When he does not repeat his delivery, his curveball is not as good, and neither is his fastball command. When he throws his 82-83 mph changeup with conviction, it flashes plus, but it remains a work in progress. Giolito also stands out for his competitive mound demeanor and tireless work ethic, and he spent his rehab learning bunt defenses and working on his fielding, which helped him make big strides holding runners and fielding his position this summer. Giolito has a real chance to become a No. 1 starter in the big leagues, because his repertoire is electrifying and his feel for pitching is fairly advanced for his age. The Nationals have a great track record with building pitchers back up after Tommy John surgery--former No. 1 prospects Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg both overcame the procedure to become stars--which allays concerns about Giolito's long-term health. The next step is proving he can handle a full-season workload. He figures to start 2014 at low Class A Hagerstown, and if he dominates as expected, he could move quickly. A big league debut by the end of 2015 is within the realm of possibility, though 2016 is a safer bet.
• 
  Ranked Washington Nationals #2 prospect in 2013
  Giolito's combination of elite stuff, size and polish gave him a chance to be the first high school righthander ever drafted No. 1 overall. But he sprained his ulnar collateral ligament in early March, ending his season and clouding his draft stock. The son of Hollywood actors Lindsay Frost and Rick Giolito, he made it clear a hefty bonus would be required to lure him away from a UCLA commitment. After drafting him 16th overall, the Nationals exceeded his assigned pick value by $800,000 and signed him for $2,925,000. He appeared in one game before having Tommy John surgery on Aug. 31. When healthy, Giolito works from 92-100 mph with his fastball, sitting comfortably at 94-96. He complements it with a plus-plus 82-86 mph curveball with depth and bite. He even flashes an above-average 82-84 mph changeup, giving him a third swing-and-miss pitch. He has an easy delivery, an advanced feel for pitching, a tenacious mound presence and a tireless work ethic. Giolito has true No. 1 starter upside, and his makeup and command give him a solid chance to reach that ceiling. The Nationals successfully nursed Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann back from Tommy John surgery, and should be able to do the same with Giolito, though he might not pitch in 2013.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #9 prospect in 2012 draft
  Giolito established himself as the nation's premier prep prospect long ago, and by the fall and winter of his senior year many scouts were clamoring that he could be the best high school righthander in draft history. He came out of the chute in December and January throwing 95-99 mph and showing off a long-toss regimen that "makes Trevor Bauer's long toss look like kid stuff," in the words of one scout. He pitched between 92-99 through February, sitting comfortably at 94-96. Then he sprained his ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in early March, ending his season and turning him into something of a wild card for the draft. Doctors worked with him on strengthening target areas during his rehabilitation, and he started throwing on flat ground by early May, with a plan to start throwing from 90 and 120 feet in the weeks leading up to the draft. The son of Hollywood actor/producer Rick Giolito, Lucas is expected to require a hefty bonus to sign him away from a commitment to UCLA, and a team will likely have to take him in the top 10 picks to have a chance to sign him under the new draft rules. His talent certainly merits that kind of investment; he has true No. 1 starter upside, with a premium fastball, a plus-plus curveball in the 82-86 range with depth and bite, and even a plus changeup at 82-84 that gives him a third swing-and-miss offering. Scouts are in love with his 6-foot-6 frame and easy delivery. He a tireless worker with a tenacious approach on the mound and a similar approach to his between-starts work. His injury may create a bit of risk, but the potential reward he offers is unparalleled in this draft.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked International League #13 prospect in 2017
  Giolito continues to frustrate evaluators because he routinely flashes up to three plus pitches and seems to have his control and delivery figured out--only to lapse and lose the strike zone during his next outing. The inconsistency is particularly jarring for a ballyhooed first-rounder like Giolito, but he did rank fourth in IL this season with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Giolito's pitched more in the low 90s this season than the mid- to upper-90s of the past. He mixed in a low- to mid-80s slider, mid- to upper-70s curveball and a changeup that flashed above-average. Several evaluators said that the lower fastball velocity allowed Giolito to get a better feel for commanding the pitch, and a more simplified delivery could help as well. Still others question his athleticism and ability to consistently repeat his mechanics at 6-foot-6 and wonder if he'd be better suited to a bullpen role.
• 
  Ranked Eastern League #5 prospect in 2016
  Desipte an enviable arsenal, Giolito needs to find the strike zone more often in order to reach his ceiling as a frontline starter. Giolito's fastball, which features above-average life, sits in the mid-90s and tops out in the high 90s. His curveball, a well above-average offering, features sharp, violent life with down action. His changeup has improved as well, to the point where it flashes above-average. Giolito showed below-average control in his return to Harrisburg, with a walk rate of 4.3 per nine innings before a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse. Scouts who saw him this year say he struggled to land his curveball consistently and thus tended to pitch behind in counts. He also displayed a little bit of a lack of focus with runners on base, and opponents hit .281 against him in those situations across all levels.
• 
  Ranked Carolina League #1 prospect in 2015
  After a three-week stint in extended spring training to start the year, Giolito joined Potomac and quickly made up for lost time. His stuff, especially his fastball and curveball, is unquestioned. Giolito's heater, which can sit in the mid-90s and peak in the uppers, grades at minimum a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His curveball, a vicious downer, rarely is graded below a 60. His changeup shows promise, too. When thrown right it has late sink and fade, but when it's overthrown it becomes a batting-practice fastball. Giolito presents a few blemishes for scouts, however. He does need to work to repeat his delivery and stay square with his catcher. The command of his arsenal, particularly his fastball, needs refinement as well. These are all minor dings, however, and Giolito looks every bit of a future frontline starter in the major leagues.
• 
  Ranked Eastern League #1 prospect in 2015
  In scouting parlance, Giolito checks off plenty of the boxes necessary to project as a future ace. Big, physical body? You got it. Mid-90s fastball? Yep, that's there too. How about a knockout offspeed pitch? His curveball is plus right now and could be a better when it's all said and done. Giolito had a rough start in the EL--he carried a 4.84 ERA through his first five starts--but later in the year showed exactly what he could do. The turning point, perhaps, was an Aug. 14 start at Bowie in which he fanned 11 batters in seven innings, tying season highs in both categories. That start was the second of five in a row in which he allowed two or fewer earned runs. Giolito still has small details to iron out. He needs to become more consistent when it comes to repeating his delivery, and his changeup needs a touch more polish before it's ready for prime time. Those are just minor quibbles, however, for Giolito finished his first taste of Double-A looking every bit like one of the game's finest pitching prospects.
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  Ranked South Atlantic League #1 prospect in 2014
  His teammate Reynaldo Lopez may have ended the year with more dominating statistics, but Giolito was everything scouts and managers expected to see from a righthander with prototype frontline starter tools and an ideal frame. Giolito could dominate hitters with his top-of-the-scale 92-100 mph fastball and plus curveball, but he worked hard to improve his changeup this year. At times, he even shelved his curveball for entire starts to focus on refining his change. Reduced to two pitches, Giolito still cruised through lineups. "His changeup got a lot better," Lakewood manager Greg Legg said. "Their pitching coach did a great job with that. It became a really good pitch for him."
• 
  Ranked Florida Complex League #2 prospect in 2013
  Giolito was in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft heading into his senior year at high school, but his season ended that March after he sprained his ulnar collateral ligament. He dropped to the Nationals at No. 16 overall, signed for $2,925,000 and pitched one game in the GCL before having Tommy John surgery in August. Giolito returned to the mound this summer on a restricted pitch count and pitched well before moving up to short-season Auburn in August. Giolito?s velocity returned after surgery, as he sat in the mid-90s and touched 100 mph. He throws his curveball with slider-like velocity at 83-86 mph, but it has deep 12-to-6 rotation with sharp bite and gives him another plus-plus pitch. Before his surgery, Giolito had flashed an above-average changeup, but that pitch wasn?t a priority for him in the GCL, so it?s still a work in progress. Like many pitchers coming back from TJ surgery, Giolito?s command was shaky at times, but that should improve next season. Health is a question mark, but he has the stuff to be a frontline starter.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #25 prospect in 2017
• Ranked Baseball America's #5 prospect in 2016
• Ranked Baseball America's #7 prospect in 2015
• Ranked Baseball America's #21 prospect in 2014
• Ranked Baseball America's #67 prospect in 2013

• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: Giolito's combination of elite stuff, size and polish gave him a chance to be the first high school righthander ever drafted No. 1 overall. But he sprained his ulnar collateral ligament in early March, ending his season and clouding his draft stock. The son of Hollywood actors Lindsay Frost and Rick Giolito, he made it clear a hefty bonus would be required to lure him away from a UCLA commitment. After drafting him 16th overall, the Nationals exceeded his assigned pick value by $800,000 and signed him for $2,925,000. He appeared in one game before having Tommy John surgery on Aug. 31. Scouting Report: When healthy, Giolito works from 92-100 mph with his fastball, sitting comfortably at 94-96. He complements it with a plus-plus 82-86 mph curveball with depth and bite. He even flashes an above-average 82-84 mph changeup, giving him a third swing-and-miss pitch. He has an easy delivery, an advanced feel for pitching, a tenacious mound presence and a tireless work ethic. The Future: Giolito has true No. 1 starter upside, and his makeup and command give him a solid chance to reach that ceiling. The Nationals successfully nursed Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann back form Tommy John surgery, and should be able to do the same with Giolito, though he might not pitch in 2013.